Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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428 FXUS65 KFGZ 062343 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 443 PM MST Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain cool with dry conditions and breezy afternoons through the rest of the week. Ridging returns over the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. && .DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that brought last night`s weather continues to push away from Arizona this afternoon as it makes its way into the Northern Plains states. In it`s wake, a cool and breezy day is underway across northern Arizona. While yesterday`s low continues to wobble around the northern plains states over the next few days, a longwave trough settles in across much of the west through the end of this week and early part of the weekend. The will keep temperatures near to below normal most days. Another wave feature and associated cold front will rotate through the long wave trough Tuesday which will tighten pressure gradients across Arizona. Wind speeds will increase enough to warrant a wind advisory and some low elevation red flag warnings for northeastern Arizona where the strongest gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. Wind directions will be more westerly on Tuesday as opposed to the predominate southwesterly we usually see this time of year. A few pockets of blowing dust will also be possible in the Little Colorado River and Chinle Valleys. As the upper level low sags southward and into Arizona from Wednesday through Saturday, we can expect much less wind. A few showers cannot be ruled out and there`s a 10-20% chance from Friday through Sunday mainly across Apache County and 4 Corners areas. The bulk of the forecast area looks to remain dry, but there is some indication among ensemble member solutions for a slightly deeper low developing which could increases these chances - something to keep an eye on. High pressure looks to dominate the weather pattern by Sunday with a warming trend expected to begin. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 07/00Z through Wednesday 08/00Z...Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will decrease this evening, then become quite strong on Tuesday with west winds gusting 30-40kts. The strongest winds north and east of a KGCN- KFLG-KSOW line. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/00Z through Friday 10/00Z...VFR conditions should persist through the outlook period, with seasonal afternoon winds gusting 15-25kts. There is a risk for MVFR CIGS/VIS conditions due to smoke from nearby burns. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Slight warming today and Tuesday. Minimum RH in the single digits to low 20s each day. West winds 15-25 mph gusting 30 mph today and with gusts 30-40 mph Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across the lower elevations in northeastern Arizona. Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures will warm into the weekend. Minimum RH values will remain in the single digits-20s range each afternoon, with typical spring-like breezes. Just a slight chance of showers moves into Apache County on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ004-005-009>015-039-040. Red Flag Warning from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ109-110-112>114-140. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff