Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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482 FXUS64 KFWD 060622 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 122 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Tuesday Afternoon/ An upper low that is currently moving through the southwestern CONUS will continue its trek eastward, eventually providing the upper support for our conditional storm chances later today. The aforementioned shortwave will swing to the northeast, spreading increased forcing for ascent across the region. Once caveat is that forecast soundings show an 850mb capping inversion through this afternoon, which will inhibit convective initiation for much of the day. The occurrence of storms across our area today is conditional on the cap breaking. *IF* the cap is able to break due to strong afternoon heating, then isolated severe thunderstorms would be expected along and ahead of the dryline. Any storm that forms today across North Texas will have the potential to quickly become severe as the environment will be unstable with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. The main threats for today will be large to very large hail and damaging winds. There is an attendant tornado threat, especially with the more discrete storms, but low level shear magnitude is marginal to keep this a more tertiary threat. Prior to the cap potentially breaking, we`ll be watching for a few scattered warm advection-induced showers/storms out ahead of the dryline. Overall, the severe threat for our area remains highest generally north of I-20, though Oklahoma has the greatest threat of the day. Nonetheless, if you are out and about today make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon and evening if storms do impact your area as they will be able to become severe quickly. The storm chances will come to an end by Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches North Texas. The cold front will move south and overtake the northern portion of the dryline early tomorrow as a secondary shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the main longwave trough. This front will make it into portions of North and Central Texas by the afternoon before stalling as the shortwave quickly ejects to the northeast. This front will not make too much change within our sensible weather, aside from scouring out some of the lower- level moisture behind it. Afternoon temperatures are still expected to peak in the mid 80s to around 90. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/ Update: No major changes were made to the long term forecast with only a few adjustments to PoPs and temperatures through the middle of next week. An unsettled pattern will continue through Wednesday and Thursday with potential for showers and thunderstorms remaining across portions of North and Central Texas, primarily along and east of the I-35 corridor. There will be a low chance for isolated instances of severe weather across this area on Wednesday, primarily for a large hail, damaging wind, and flash flooding threat. Additional potential will exist on Thursday as well, but confidence in the spatial distribution of thunderstorms is not terribly high at this time. Because of this, a broad-stroke inclusion of low PoPs remains necessary until details can be further refined with hi-res model guidance in the coming days. Temperatures will be on the rise through the middle of the week, with afternoon highs reaching into the low 90s across Central Texas. Coupled with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will quickly approach the 100 degree mark. It will be important to start considering heat safety precautions as this brief stretch of late-spring heat kicks into gear. While we won`t be hitting any heat product criteria (thankfully), this initial adjustment to the heat could cause some issues with our more vulnerable population. This will not last long however as a strong cold front sweeps in across the region, bringing temperatures down to seasonal normals and allowing for a stretch of dry weather through the upcoming weekend. For more details, please see the previous discussion below and continue to check back for updates. Reeves Previous Discussion: /Next Week Through Mother`s Day Weekend/ By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler post-frontal air to the region mid to late week. On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally, the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position (near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable but dry start to Mother`s Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s. Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however, as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ MVFR cigs have reached ACT and will reach D10 closer to 10Z. Flying conditions will degrade further with IFR cigs expected at the TAF sites around daybreak. Over this afternoon, ceilings should gradually lift back to above 2kft alongside breezy southerly winds. There are low chances for isolated storms across the region this afternoon and evening, but occurrence is too uncertain to include in the TAFs at this time. Conditions will continue to improve to VFR this evening. Another round of MVFR stratus is expected later tonight/tomorrow morning at the TAF sites. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 89 72 89 66 / 20 0 5 20 20 Waco 70 87 71 88 69 / 10 0 5 10 10 Paris 69 87 70 85 63 / 40 0 10 40 50 Denton 66 87 70 88 63 / 20 0 5 20 20 McKinney 69 87 70 87 64 / 20 0 5 20 30 Dallas 71 90 72 90 67 / 20 0 5 20 20 Terrell 70 86 71 87 65 / 20 0 5 20 30 Corsicana 72 89 73 88 69 / 10 0 5 20 20 Temple 70 88 71 88 69 / 10 0 5 10 5 Mineral Wells 65 87 70 90 63 / 10 0 5 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$