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000
FXUS64 KFWD 140609
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
109 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Into Monday/

Breezy and warm weather is expected once again by late morning
into the afternoon hours, as a stagnant upper ridge remains in
control of the weather and keeping the area rain-free. A stratus
surge will surge northward rapidly and encompass Central and
eastern North Texas just after sunrise, but only be short-lived
due to the very shallow nature of moisture under the EML. I expect
the low clouds to gradually shift eastward from mid morning
through lunchtime. This time of the year, unless the moist layer
below the elevated mixed layer is at least 50mb or more deep,
morning stratus doesn`t hang on long beyond mid morning thanks to
strong heating and associated mixing. The breezy and relatively
more humid environment this morning will have temperatures
starting off in the 60s after sunrise, but quickly warming to
around 80 this afternoon where any stratus lingers the longest.
Mid 80s to lower 90s are expected west of I-35 with the steamiest
temperatures advertised for the Big Country. Another breezy and
humid night is expected before we enter the beginning of the work
week. Combined with periodic high cloudiness, relatively warm low
temperatures well into the 60s with a few readings near 70 degrees
will begin your Monday morning.

Monday is the transition day, as a deep longwave trough and
embedded surface low over Intermountain West begins it`s migration
east toward the Rockies Front Range and western High Plains by
early evening. This will put our region under increasing
southwesterly flow aloft which usually entails a relatively
strengthening EML (elevated mixed layer or "the cap"). Strong low
level southwesterly flow up through 800mb will continue the
persistent low level warm advection going as we move through the
morning hours. Some enhanced isentropic ascent through the morning
hours Monday may produce a few sprinkles across areas primarily
west of I-35, though this could be seen even further east
considering the next full-blown stratus surge anticipated across
much of the area.

A lead shortwave will lift northeast during the prime heating
hours, and could trigger a few isolated showers or storms across
primarily western North Texas. Despite the the warm and unstable
surface layer, the EML will still be awaiting better ascent to
lift and moisten it, so any activity would be relatively elevated
and only accessing the steepening lapse rates aloft for a low
coverage threat for a strong storm or two containing small hail
and gusty winds, as the more significant discrete and
supercellular development remains well west of the area near the
distant dryline and where stronger large scale ascent is
anticipated with the approach of the main trough. Cloudiness
should be more persistent across all but the areas west of US-281.
Areas east of this corridor will see highs capped around 80
degrees, with hotter values between 85 to 90 degrees to the west
where more hours of sunshine will be present.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 146 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/
/Monday and Beyond/

By early Monday morning, a deep upper low will be shifting over
the Four Corners region leading to surface cyclogenesis in the lee
of the Rockies. Increasing southerly flow will transport mid-60s
dewpoints over North and Central Texas by Monday afternoon ahead
of a dryline laid out across portions of West/Northwest Texas.
Initial thunderstorm development will take place late Monday
afternoon and evening along this boundary well to the west and
northwest of the FWD CWA as the upper low approaches. The
environment will support discrete/semi-discrete supercellular
structures with this initial convection as it develops across
portions of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. As a Pacific
front overtakes the dryline late Monday evening and pushes the
convection toward our western zones, a transition to a more linear
storm structure make take place. With the greater synoptic-scale
ascent remaining northwest of our forecast area ahead of the upper
low track and SBCIN increasing after dark, moderate to strong
capping may lead to a downtrend in intensity by the time the
thunderstorm activity enters our Big Country and western North
Texas counties around 8-11PM Monday night. This is especially true
as the line/broken line of showers and thunderstorms approaches
the I-35 corridor later Monday night.

With sufficient wind shear and at least some moderate elevated
instability, we do not want to underplay the severe weather threat
just yet, especially west of the I-35 corridor late Monday evening
into Monday night. At least scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected along the Pacific front as it pushes
through North and Central Texas, but it is likely that many
locations receive less than 0.10" of rain with this event. Most of
the activity should push into East Texas by midday Tuesday, but we
will need to monitor for a brief window of reintensification early
Tuesday afternoon across our far eastern/southeastern counties.

Drier air behind the Pacific front will lead to a dry, warm
midweek period with afternoon highs approaching the mid-80s to low
90s by Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through the region
in the Thursday-early Friday timeframe bringing cooler
temperatures and thunderstorm chances back to the region. High
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are looking more probable
Friday into the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR currently with occasional, mainly low MVFR (though isolated
IFR is possible) surges expected both early this morning and again
on Monday morning. Timing these surges will be the primary
challenge, with just periodic high cloudiness AoA FL250 expected.

With a 40kt+ SSW LLJ ongoing, night IR satellite already showing
some low VFR/MVFR moving rapidly north through Central TX. These
should arrive at Waco in the 09z-10z period, then arrive across
the D10 DFW airports in the 12z-13z time period. Forecast
soundings show this moisture to be quite shallow/thin, thus
veering 925mb flow and strong heating/mixing will help to scatter
and move these cigs east of the airports by 15z.

Southerly winds 10-15 kts will prevail through this coming
evening, with a few gusts to near 25 kts possible through mid
afternoon. A 24-30 hr line was added to DFW Int`l Airport for a
higher confidence of MVFR cigs return by/after 09z Monday.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  81  68  86  65 /   0  10  50  20   0
Waco                66  80  68  86  68 /   0  10  30  20   0
Paris               65  79  66  82  66 /   0   5  40  60  10
Denton              66  80  66  86  60 /   0  10  60  10   0
McKinney            66  79  67  85  64 /   0   5  50  30   0
Dallas              68  81  69  87  66 /   0   5  50  20   0
Terrell             65  79  67  84  67 /   0   5  40  40   5
Corsicana           66  82  69  84  70 /   0   0  30  40   0
Temple              65  81  67  86  67 /   0   5  30  20   0
Mineral Wells       65  83  64  88  59 /   0  10  60   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$