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000
FXUS64 KFWD 121926
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
226 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

A warm and occasionally breezy start to the weekend is upon North
and Central Texas as upper level ridging builds overtop the
Southern Plains. A stream of scattered cirrus will continue to
ride the Subtropical jet stream and spread across the state this
afternoon and evening, with the denser cloud cover progged to move
overhead after peak heating. Mostly sunny skies and persisting
southerly flow at the surface and low levels will allow
temperatures to warm well into the 70s and 80s. The warming trend
will continue into Saturday as morning lows only bottom out in
the 50s and 60s.

Wind speeds will be on the increase as low surface pressure in
the lee of the Rockies deepens, tightening the surface pressure
gradient. Maximum speeds will be observed during the afternoon,
where sustained speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph are
expected. While isolated areas near and west of the I-35 corridor
may reach Wind Advisory criteria late tomorrow morning and
afternoon, exceedance is too isolated to warrant the issuance of
a Wind Advisory with this forecast package. Nonetheless, it will
be a breezy day, so make sure to secure loose outdoor objects and
take caution driving high profile vehicles. Otherwise, expect
another round of high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday and Beyond/

Moist, southerly low-level flow will increase by Sunday ahead of a
deepening upper-level low over the western CONUS. By Monday,
breezy southerly winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph at times
will help usher in mid-60s surface dewpoints across much of the
Southern Plains. As the upper low shifts into the Plains,
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop late Monday afternoon
and evening along a dryline laid out across portions of the Texas
Panhandle and West Texas, well west and northwest of the FWD
forecast area. A Pacific front will eventually overtake this
dryline, pushing the thunderstorm activity east into North Texas
late Monday evening into Monday night.

Weak capping, sufficient instability, and forecasted wind profiles
will likely support more discrete, supercellular storm structures
initially off the dryline late Monday afternoon. It is uncertain
exactly how this activity will evolve as it shifts east toward
North Texas late Monday evening, but the overall environment is
not particularly supportive of widespread severe weather. Current
guidance continues to suggest that SBCIN will increase Monday
night over North Texas as we remain south and east of the greatest
synoptic- scale ascent associated with the upper-level low. This
would lead us to assume that any thunderstorm activity will take
on a weakening trend once it enters our forecast area, with the
greatest chances for strong to severe storms across our far
western Big Country counties. If convection is able to remain more
discrete as it enters western North Texas, hail would be the
primary hazard. However, if thunderstorms grow upscale into a
line/broken line of thunderstorms, damaging winds would be more of
a concern. Although an increasing low-level jet Monday
evening/night is leading to some curvature in the forecasted
hodographs, limited low-level instability will likely keep the
tornado threat on the low end. Nevertheless, continue to pay close
attention to the forecast over the next few days as we further
refine timing/location/hazard specifics.

The bulk of the thunderstorm activity should be shifting into East
Texas by midday Tuesday. This system will not be a big rain-maker
with most locations seeing less than 0.25". A brief period of
warm, dry weather will take place midweek behind this system with
afternoon highs rising into the mid-80s to mid-90s by Wednesday.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to highlight the
passage of a strong cold front on Thursday bringing cooler
temperatures and rain chances back to North and Central Texas.
Depending on the speed of this frontal passage, there may be a
window of opportunity for a couple strong to severe storms across
our Central Texas counties late Thursday. High temperatures in the
60s to low 70s are looking more probable Friday into next weekend
behind this frontal boundary.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Southerly winds around 10-15 kts with occasional higher gusts
will persist through this afternoon as scattered high-level
cirrus continue to stream across the region. Wind speeds will
decrease slightly this evening. but will stay around 10 kts.
Denser cirrus is expected to move over the TAF sites overnight,
but VFR will prevail through the period.

Continued southerly winds will strengthen even more tomorrow
afternoon in response to deepening low pressure to our northwest.
Expect speeds around 15-20 kts with gusts up to around 30 kts
across D10, with slightly lower speeds at ACT.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  82  63  84  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                57  80  62  81  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               54  79  60  80  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              56  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            57  80  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              60  82  63  84  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  79  61  81  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           57  81  62  83  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              56  80  62  82  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       56  83  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$