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000
FXUS63 KGID 111040
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
540 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are anticipated this
  afternoon as breezy northwest winds...with gusts to 45
  mph...and low relative humidity values (sub 20 percent) are
  anticipated.

- Additional off and on fire weather concerns are anticipated
  through the weekend as dry and breezy weather continues.

- Temperatures will soar into the 80s by Saturday, and likely
  top out in the 80s both Sunday and Monday as well. While
  temperatures will likely not reach record territory, high
  temperatures this weekend will be about 20 degrees above
  normal.

- Unsettled weather returns late Monday afternoon or evening,
  with severe thunderstorms possible Monday evening/night (~15%
  chance for severe weather exists for much of the area from
  SPC)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Mostly clear skies and breezy conditions persisted across the
local area overnight. A few lower level clouds and be seen
dissipating across northeastern Nebraska early this morning,
and are not expected to impact the local area today.

For this afternoon, expect mostly sunny skies to allow for good
mixing to near 700 MB...which will help mix down drier air and
gusty winds from aloft. This should result in critical fire
weather conditions...and a Red Flag warning remains in effect
starting at noon despite the cooler airmass that has filtered in
across the area behind yesterdays front.

For Friday and the upcoming weekend...expect high pressure aloft
to transition across the plains, resulting in warming
temperatures and dry weather across the region. While winds will
likely not be as gusty as this afternoon, could see a couple of
breezy days combined with the dry airmass to result in at least
elevated to near critical fire weather concerns each afternoon.
Outside of fire weather concerns, conditions should be
relatively nice, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s
each afternoon Saturday through Monday, when the next west coast
low approaches the local area.

Currently the local area remains in a 15 percent chance for
severe weather with this next low from the SPC...which should
be focused during the evening hours Monday based on instability
that is expected to build through the afternoon hours and
forcing from the leading edge of the system. Given the good
instability and modest shear and strong forcing, should see the
full spectrum of possibilities of severe weather and potential
for some beneficial rainfall that could help with the "green up"
of fuels across the local area...eventually potentially helping
to alleviate future fire weather concerns.

Thunderstorms should transition to rainfall on the backside of
this system next Tuesday, with off and on chances for additional
shower activity along with a return to more seasonable
temperatures through at least next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with some modest LLWS
expected to continue through around 11/14Z...with surface winds
then increasing and being gusty to near 40 KTS throughout the
daytime hours. Little to no cloud cover this morning with good
VSBYS expected...and a few afternoon fair weather CU near 6 KFT
possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi