Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KGSP 232158
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system maintains cooler temperatures today. High
pressure builds in from the north Sunday into Monday bringing drier
weather. Another front arrives from the west late Tuesday and
increases rain chances. Unsettled pattern for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 555 PM Saturday: Surface high pressure and an upper ridge move
into the area tonight behind a departing frontal zone and upper
trough. Gusty northerly winds have developed bringing drier
continental into the region overnight and through the end of the
period. Isolated lingering showers along the front have moved south
with the front. The gusty winds will continue into the evening, with
some stronger gusts possible across the mountains. Gusty Gap Winds
are likely this evening downwind of the mountains. Winds should
taper off overnight outside of the mountains but some gusty winds
will continue across the mountains. The other concern for area will
be near or just at freezing temperatures for the NC/SC Piedmont.
Guidance from the NAM and NBM keep temps right at or just above
freezing for a brief period before daybreak Sunday. With clear skies
expected overnight, areas of patchy frost could occur IF winds can
calm enough. Confidence still remains low for widespread frost given
the light but not calm wind speeds. However, a light freeze is
possible in the normally colder sheltered areas of the NC foothills
and Piedmont. After daybreak Sunday, surface high pressure builds in
and keeps the area clear and dry. Fire concerns for Sunday afternoon
will be low RH values with the entire CWA dipping into the 20
percent range, with areas of lower RH in spots where increased
downslope winds occur in the mountains. Winds will remain light with
gusts around 10mph. Temperatures will remain near climo and make for
a pleasant spring day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...Surface high pressure will build down the
east side of the Appalachians Sunday night while a deep low moves
through the Plains states. Cooler air will move into region from the
northeast with lows in the NC Piedmont and eastern Piedmont of SC
dropping into the middle 30s, with less cool lows expected in NE
Georgia and the western Piedmont of SC. This period will have to be
watched closely for frost in spots if clouds hold off and winds drop
off late. Mountain areas should drop below freezing but would
require no headlines at the moment.

The surface high will slowly move off to the east on Monday as the
Plains system moves northeast. This should lead to a tranquil day
despite some wind gusts and cloudiness. The low will move well
northwest of the region pushing a weakening cold front toward the
forecast area on Tuesday. An area of showers ahead of the front will
impact the area late Monday night in the mountains and the entire
forecast area on Tuesday, but no hazardous weather is expected due
to limited dynamics and instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...There is model disagreement on the Wednesday
to Thursday timeframe of next week. Some models move the front and
rainfall east of the area on Wednesday and dry conditions out for
Thursday. A few other models develop an area of low pressure along
the coast and pull some rain back into the forecast area on
Thursday. Based on the uncertainty, we will carry the chance of rain
into Thursday with the potential for large changes to this period in
later forecasts.

Conditions look to dry out going into Friday and Saturday with
warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Starting the TAF period with most sites
already VFR with KCLT and KAVL remaining MVFR. A broken cloud deck
mixed with low and mid level clouds is expected to remain until a
cold front pushes through the area later this afternoon and evening.
Winds are already gusting at all sites and should remain through
midnight, with an occasional low-end gust likely at KCLT and KAVL
before 12z. Wind direction won`t be a major issue as all sites are
N/NW before the front passes. Expect wind direction to shift NE/ENE
by the end of the period at all terminals. Once the front moves
through, expect VFR conditions to prevail for CIGS/VSBY at all
sites and SKC.

Outlook: Dry high pressure and VFR conditions for Sunday into
Monday. Rain chances and possible restrictions return Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cold front moves in from the west.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/RWH
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.