481
FXUS61 KGYX 011100
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
700 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier today but still mainly cloudy and cool in onshore flow.
Shower chances return for Thursday. Cloudy skies and onshore
winds will favor high temperatures running below normal through
the rest of the week. High pressure builds in from the north
Friday for mostly fair weather into Saturday. Chances for
showers increase Sunday into Monday then warmer temperatures are
looking likely for the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM...Showers have cleared the CWA to the S, so POPS were
lowered for this morning. Otherwise forecast is in good shape
as we look forward to another cloudy and cool day, although
maybe a bit warmer than Tuesday.

Previously...While there has been fairly strong and persistent
ridging across the eastern third of the CONUS the last few days
and that slowly shifts east over the next few days, it has not
done any favors, except going back to Monday. This is because
the ope of the ridge has persistently been hammered by weak
waves either ejecting 500 Mb closed low over the Canadian
prairie or being generated by deep convection over the US plains
/sometimes both/. For today, we see one wave that moves that
moves E of the CWA, and this allows the ridge to build up a
little. This keep the keep the day dry, but the low level
onshore flow will keep us cool and generally cloudy. Could see
some limited breaks of sun late in the day, especially in the E
zones, and also SW NH and maybe the CT valley up to KLEB or so.
The downslope will help this areas warm a bit more than
everywhere else, but still highs here will only be around 60 or
maybe the low 60s. Elsewhere expect highs in the 50s, lower 50s
near the coast and mid to upper 50s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Yet another wave moves in from the W tonight and crashes the
ridge aloft. This will bring another round and showers or occnl
rain late tonight into Thu. Lows tonight drop off into the the
low to mid 40s once again. Thursday most of the CWA will see
those showers and rain continue into at least the early
afternoon, but it should be winding down mid to late afternoon.
And once again temps across much of the CWA will be on the cool
side, mainly in the mid to upper 50s. However, models suggest
that the weak sfc low actually crosses somewhere from around
KLEB-KPSM during the afternoon and this could put interior S NH
into the warm sector, which means maybe some partly sunny skies
and definitely warmer temps with highs in the 65-70 range. It
cuts a fine line in the forecast, so confidence is lower on
where the sfc low actually ends up, but at least theres some
optimism for a part of the CWA Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview: A 500 mb ridge and surface high pressure build in for
the end of the week which will keep things dry, but an upper
low offshore looks to keep temperatures on the cooler side. The
ridge moves off to the east Sunday night and after a frontal
passage warm temperatures do look to arrive for the beginning of
next week.

Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected

Details: Light showers linger overnight Thursday as a shortwave
clears the area. Skies remain cloudy through the night keeping
low temperatures in the 40s south of the mountains and in the
upper 30s to the north. Surface high pressure and a 500 mb ridge
begin to build in to the region on Friday. This will help
temperatures warm a bit, but an upper level low to the east will
advect cooler marine air into the area at the same time,
capping 850 mb temperatures at 2-3C. Therefore, we likely only
see high temperatures top out in the upper 50s across much of
the area with low 60s possible in southern New Hampshire and the
Connecticut River Valley. With continued clouds low
temperatures will be similar to the night before, low 40s in the
south and upper 30s across the north.

Saturday will be mostly dry as well with the ridge axis
overhead. Again, this would normally suggest warming
temperatures, but cool North Atlantic marine air will continue
to be advected into the region by an upper low close by. High
temperatures look to end up very similar if not even a degree or
two cooler than Friday. The surface high and 500 mb ridge both
begin departing to the east Saturday night which will also move
the upper low along as well. Cool northeast flow turns into warm
southwest flow during the day Sunday as the ridge continues
east. This means that clouds won`t be going anywhere as the
column stays moist. A low pressure system passing to our north
may drag a front through the region resulting in some rain
showers Sundays afternoon and evening.

The 500 mb pattern remains unsettled to begin the week with
shortwaves continuing to rotate through the area so chances of
rain showers will stay in the extended forecast, but with
continued southwest and westerly flow, we may finally get the
warm up we have been waiting for with ensembles suggesting
clearing skies that may help us take full advantage of 850 mb
temperatures climbing into the 8-10C range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Hard to see much, if any VFR through Thu. Given the
rain ending and some cooling in the pre-dawn should see a few
hours of IFR fog/cigs in most terminals, but this should improve
to MVFR during the morning inland and by midday at the coastal
terminals. Another weak low moves through late tonight and Thu,
and this will being some IFR conds late tonight into Thu
morning, before we return to MVFR again.

Long Term...VFR is the prevailing condition through Saturday,
with the next chance for restrictions being on Sunday as
ceilings lower and rain showers cross the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Expecting a brief surge in SSE flow ahead of cold
front on Thu, but should top out with 20 kt gusts for a few
hours, and thus, no SCA conds expected.

Long Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not
expected. Winds will largely be less than 10kts with some gusts
to 15kts, initially northeasterly Friday and Saturday and then
shifting southeasterly for Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Baron
AVIATION...
MARINE...