Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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771 FXUS63 KICT 292030 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storm potential returns for late afternoon and evening Tuesday along with Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Pattern will remain active for the end of the work week into the weekend with multiple chances for storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Currently have a shortwave trough lifting across the Upper Mississippi Valley and about to move into the Western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, another piece of energy is tracking across the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, a stationary front extends from eastern MO down into southeast OK. Broad upper troughing is expected to expand into the Northern Rockies and eventually northern Plains by Tue afternoon with a lead impulse lifting out into the Central/Northern High Plains late Tue morning. In response, low level moisture will continue to increase across the Plains with a cold front/dryline expected to sharpen from eastern Nebraska down into Western OK by late afternoon Tue. Storms are expected to develop along the cold front Tue afternoon, with the initial development most likely over eastern Nebraska, where better upper forcing will be located. Given minimal capping, confidence is fairly high that storms will attempt to build south along the front/dryline as Tue evening approaches. However, confidence is fairly low on how much storm coverage there will be with the northeast portion of our forecast area having the higher chances. Mid and upper winds do not look that impressive but with with CAPE values in the 2,000-3.000J/KG range, storms will not need much deep layer shear to produce large hail. In addition, the slow storm movement could lead to heavy rain potential which may occur over already saturated grounds over the Flint Hills/southeast KS. As the lead impulse lift into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wed, a more robust piece of energy will dig into eastern portions of the Great Basin. As this occurs, rich low level moisture will work back to the northwest on Wed with a triple point setting up across west-central KS and a warm front extending northeast through southeast Nebraska. With an abundance of moisture/CAPE the main question will be if and how many storms develop along the dryline/warm front Wed afternoon/evening, especially since there will be slightly more capping than on Tue. Current thinking is the most likely area for development will be near the triple point where convergence is maximized. Just like on Tuesday, it looks like a high CAPE low shear environment with HP supercells possible. However, toward or shortly after sunset Wed low level shear is expected to improve as low level jet ramps-up. By late Wed afternoon, the triple point is expected to generally be west of the Great Bend area with any storms that develop expected to track off to the east fairly slowly. But just like Tue, confidence on how much storm coverage there will be is low at this time. As the shortwave swings across the Northern/Central Plains on Thu, the better storm chances will be pushed off to the east, with southeast KS having the higher storm chances on Thu with most of the area dry on Thu night into Fri. Pattern will remain active with yet another impulse set to track across the Northern/Central Plains Fri night which will allow low level moisture to fly back north and may result in some elevated convection for Fri night into Sat morning with another front set to move through the forecast area on Sat into Sat night. So pattern is definitely looking to stay active. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 In general, VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Surface winds will generally remain out of the south or southwest for the remainder of the day with wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots. Overnight into tomorrow morning, marginal LLWS is possible for locations along and north of the I-70 corridor, including KRSL and KSLN. After 15Z, southerly winds are expected to increase, and gusts around 30 to 35 knots are possible by mid-afternoon on Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances increase for much of the area after the end of the TAF period Tuesday afternoon. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...JC