362
FXUS63 KICT 281046
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
546 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for additional strong/severe storms across the
  Flint Hills/southeast Kansas today with lingering areal and
  river flooding.

- Periodic chances for showers/storms for mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

After a very busy Saturday, trailing stratiform rain/thunder
continues to affect southeast Kansas early this morning with
mainly high water issues now. Increasing convergence along the
Pacific cold front merger into the dry-line has resulted in a
last gasp for a thin/marginally strong convective line of
storms moving into the Wichita metro as of 08z where a moderate
cape axis resides. Otherwise, best chances for renewed diurnal
storms will exist ahead of the front this afternoon across
southeast Kansas where instability/shear combo will support a
risk for some marginally severe hail and wind. A few post-
frontal showers will also be possible under the upper trof,
mainly across central Kansas. Dry and seasonably mild for Monday
before the pattern turns a bit more active again for the mid-
week periods. Moisture will return ahead of the next upper trof
moving across the northern Plains by Monday night with the
associated cold front moving into the area on Tuesday. An upper
trof will try and settle southward across the northern and
central Rockies from Wednesday into Thursday with a surface
front wavering across the area. Relatively weaker perturbations
rippling thru the mean flow ahead of the approaching northern
Rockies upper trof look to provide lift along the increasingly
moist unstable frontal boundary. A transition to cooler weather
behind a cold front later in the week as the main upper trof
progresses eastward across mid-America.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Low CIGS with reduced VSBY are moving across central KS and have
arrived at RSL and will do so in the next 1-2 hours at SLN, GBD,
HUT, and ICT. CIGS and VSBY will improve towards mid to late
morning with VFR returning by early afternoon. Rain showers,
currently across eastern KS, will progress east of CNU by 14
with MVFR to IFR continuing through early to mid-afternoon. A
few showers/storms are possible near CNU this afternoon but
confidence is too low for a mention at this point. Westerly
winds at 10-20 kt will decrease this evening and become more
northwesterly.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ069>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB