425
FXUS62 KILM 041740
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
140 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend
due to several upper level disturbances and interactions of weak
surface fronts and the daily sea breeze. Dry High pressure will
build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures
likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain
chances increase towards the end of next week due to an
approaching frontal system.

&&

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers are ongoing west of US 701 (across most inland
counties) with plenty of moisture available. Instability is
meager, aided by mid/upper cloud deck, which has limited
thunderstorm coverage. Activity will continue through late
afternoon/early evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning, will deal with areas of fog with patchy
dense mainly across the inland Southeast NC portions of the FA.
SPS already issued to accommodate the patchy dense. High level
and some mid level clouds will combine to keep fog development
minimal across Northeast SC. Some of these clouds will filter
across Southeast NC, likely helping to keep the fog from
expanding and becoming widespread dense.

Mid-level ridge axis will slide eastward, off the Carolina
Coasts today thru tonight. This will allow some further
moistening of the atm with an increase in PWs to 1.6+ inches
inland, ie. along and west of I-95 corridor, and up to 1.2
inches at the coast. The further eastward moving of the upper
ridge will allow the 1.5+ pws to reach the coast later tonight.
We`ll have the moisture, now a closer movement east of the
frontal boundary. In addition, today`s inland sea breeze
movement will flare up convection ahead of it but the stable
layer in its wake will negate pcpn development. For the most
part, the coast will stay dry and the inland counties will carry
the threat, with the hier POPs along and west of the I-95
corridor. Later tonight, a mid-level s/w trof will approach from
the SW with an increase in POPs overspreading the entire ILM
CWA, especially closer to the coast, late in the pre-dawn Sun
hrs. Max temps today, actually running near or slightly above
normal. Tonights lows running above normal, with a few coastal
locations seeing upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather increases on Sunday with a weak frontal
boundary still stalled west of the I-95 corridor and moisture
advection overspreading the area. Weak shortwave energy
coinciding with afternoon heating should produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Remaining unsettled on Monday,
especially along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by
increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night
into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast
overnight. Highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the mid
60s each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but
warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few
afternoon storms are possible, but with much less coverage than
previous days. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will
be the start of a warming trend through Thursday.

Ridging amplifies during the middle of the week. Expect above
normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping
coastal sites above normal as well. Watching the next chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Friday ahead of an upper low and
associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through this evening/early overnight, outside
of MVFR cigs around Georgetown county. Scattered showers will
continue across western parts of the forecast area, with
thunderstorm activity expected to increase across Pee Dee region
through 21z or so. Inland precipitation will dissipate this
evening, with showers moving onshore across coastal northeast SC
around 6z. These showers continue through morning, spreading
northward. With abundant low level moisture, looking at MVFR
stratus to develop during predawn hours, first inland and then
the coast, and possibly lingering into Sunday afternoon. Shower
activity picks up again midday Sunday with chance for thunder.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic
visibility and ceiling restrictions Sun into Mon. Otherwise,
looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the
mainstay Tue into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign wind and sea conditions will continue
thru tonight courtesy of a relaxed sfc pg due to weak offshore
high pressure. Winds generally SE-SSE around 10 kt thru the
period. Seas generally 2 ft or less, mainly dominated by a E-SE
7 to 9 second period wave. Sea breeze could push winds within 10
nm of the coast to around 15 kt this aftn and early evening.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...Winds become southerly on
Sunday and increase to 10-15 knots. Slightly stronger near the
coast with the assistance of a developing sea breeze. Winds turn
SW on Monday and increase in response to a tighter pressure
gradient. Gusts up to 20 knots are expected, but conditions
should remain sub-SCA. Seas 2- 3 feet early this week increase
to 3-4 feet during the middle portion of next week. Low impact
easterly swell will continue through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/21