611
FXUS62 KILM 081251
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
851 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high
pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid
conditions expected. Mostly limited showers and storms expected
through Wednesday. A cold front moves through late in the work
week bringing a better chance of rain and possible strong to
severe storms. High pressure will then follow bringing drier
and cooler conditions for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor tweaks made to previous forecast with the morning
forecast update. Have kept pops below 35% through this evening,
with highest across southeast NC, as several hi-res guidance
keeps storm coverage rather minimal. Will see what 12z guidance
depicts. Instability is expected to be rather abundant, >2500
J/kg, and so any storms that do develop could build quickly and
lead to severe hail (>= 1") and/or strong winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridging to dominate today with WNW to NW flow aloft. Other
than cirrus, and midday and aftn cu field, a good dose of
insolation is expected. Guidance supports widespread 90+ degree
readings across the ILM CWA. ILM is the 1 location across the
ILM CWA that may actually have a shot to eclipse their record
high of 92 set in both 2002 and 2014. Look for 80s for highs at
the area beaches due to a pinned sea breeze. Pinned because,
wind directions(WNW-NW) and decent speeds aloft will prevent a
full outward progression inland. The upper ridging flattens
across the area tonight with respectable westerly flow aloft
becoming dominant. The flow aloft is important with convection
expected to develop or be ongoing well upstream at the start of
this period. Will likely have convection develop along the
west/central Carolinas sfc trof later today that progresses to
the Eastern Carolinas this aftn/evening. Overnight, activity
that may have crossed the Appalachians pushes eastward and
likely will affect the Eastern Carolinas during the pre-dawn Thu
hrs. At this point, have indicated POPs ranging from lowest
(less than 10%) southern ILM CWA, to highest across northern ILM
CWA (25-35%). The convective activity will be in clusters or
possibly in the form of a MCS/MCC as they track within the mean
flow. SPC indicates strong to possibly severe with hail and
damaging wind gusts the primary concerns. Will see widespread
balmy 70s for tonights lows but should be accompanied by an
active SW wind, except SSW becoming SW along the coast due to
the demise of the sea breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge overhead Thursday will be flattening, its
heights lowered by strongly positively tilted trough diving
south across Great Lakes/OH Valley. A prefrontal trough will
stall to our north, likely keeping most of the convection along
its length. Better dynamics will be collocated with the boundary
and the main severe weather threat will be across the northern
half of NC. A fairly deep presentation of 7 C/Km lapse rates
will offer moderately strong instability, but LCL`s are still
looking pretty high for widespread storm across most of the CWA,
the exception being far nrn zones. Even as storms train
eastward to our north there doesn`t seem enough of a southerly
low level flow component to get the storm propagation vectors
this far south (well illustrated by the 00Z WRF run). Friday may
turn out more active as the synoptic front sags southward
though with increased cloud cover our lapse rates start to
weaken. This should be offset at least in part to some actual
dynamics in the form of height falls and DPVA. In the end both
days appear to offer a severe threat, Thursday`s with more
instability and Friday`s with better dynamics. Impressive drying
slated for Friday night as PWs drop from 1.5" to 0.40".

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Significant airmass change over the weekend with temperatures
knocked back down to normal and dewpoints some 20 degrees lower
than the previous days. The latter especially allowing for some
slightly cool nights. Moisture recovery late in the period
looks pretty gradual as high pressure moves offshore. It may be
more pronounced if the solutions such as the GFS that depict a
stronger southern branch comes to pass, but the solutions
showing a weaker Gulf Coast jet look more seasonably
appropriate. Either way some light rain appears slated for the
last day of the period if not the last two.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected through the period with exceptions. Upper ridging
to prevail across the FA with flow aloft W to NW. At the sfc,
tightened sfc pg will result in WSW winds peaking at 10-15 kt,
g20 kt this aftn and evening, especially at the coastal
terminals where a sea breeze, remaining somewhat pinned, will
back winds to the SSW. The convection that crosses the mountains
or forms on the Carolinas trof, should either remain north of
the terminals or weaken as they reach and push across the inland
terminals late this aftn or early evening. Will only include
VCTS at this time for this time frame. Another round of
convection dropping down from upstream is slated to affect the
local terminals between 06z-12z Thu and that will be exhibited
with PROB30 groups. This activity likely stronger than its
predecessor.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating late tonight into
early Thu with just isolated convection possible across the
inland terminals. Threat of more widespread strong convection
with periodic flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri
ahead of a strong CFP. High pressure to prevail late Fri into
the weekend with VFR dominating.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...The sfc pg between center of high pressure
well offshore from the SE States Coast and the inland Carolinas
sfc trof, will result in SW winds increasing to 15 to
occasionally 20 kt during this period. Will see occasional gusts
to around 25 kt . However, the lack of frequency and coverage
will keep an SCA from being issued at this time. Seas will
respond building to 3 to 4 ft, with 5 footers across the ILM NC
Waters. The wind wave at 4 to 6 seconds will dominate the seas
spectrum with a continued underlying small Easterly swell at
10+ sec periods.

Thursday through Sunday Night...Prefrontal flow regime will
feature a moderate gradient on Thursday. We may be close to SCA
criteria with winds but gusts only at this point. Have held off
on hoisting adv esp since NWPS seas have backed off by about a
foot, now keeping 6 ft waves mostly out of the picture.
Additionally, swell energy appears minimal inside of 20nm, the
long SSW fetch keeping the longer period waves offshore. Winds
start to veer Friday as front approaches from the NW, its
passage slated for evening time. OFfshore flow is then expected
for the remainder of the period, once again minimizing swell
energy vs wind waves.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB