173
FXUS61 KILN 141949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Eastward exiting low pressure will continue to provide some
shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday, generally
southeast of I-71. High pressure builds in with any shower
activity holding off until Thursday night as upper level energy
and a surface low bring the next round of showers to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Rain and showers will persist, with patches of drizzle in-
between rounds of rain tonight. Any thunderstorm activity should
be limited to northern Kentucky and be quite sparing. Am of the
thought that a very stable lower atmosphere with the rain found
today will not support thunderstorm activity, less so severe
weather.

With showers and a deep cloud layer, lows will stay up tonight
and only drop to around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Some instability is noted in the southeast on Wednesday.
Combined with the axis of the upper trough moving east, morning
showers will decrease from w-e in the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, moreso early in the day and
focused southeast of the I-71 corridor.

Highs will be in the lower 70s for most locations.

If a shower or two were to linger into the evening, they will
quickly dissipate. Cloud cover will linger in most areas but see
a clearing from the northwest later overnight. Lows will be a
little cooler under a north wind, dropping to the lower 50s
northwest, upper 50s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid and upper level low to move off to the East Coast with
ridging building into the area Thursday. This ridge will offer a
temporary dry period.

Mid level short wave ejecting out ahead of a deepening
trough/developing low in the central US to track across the
region Thursday night. This will bring a return to unsettled
weather.

Model solutions differ on the development and speed of the next
mid level low. Have trended the forecast toward the more
progressive ECMWF with the main trough likely moving across the
area Friday night.

Guidance continues to struggle with the progression and
strength of this system. Have lingered pops into Saturday and
mainly dry conditions Sunday.

Model solutions continue to show spread and therefore
uncertainty with front dropping into the southern Great Lakes
early next week. Have low chance pops across the far north
closer to the front with slight chance pops elsewhere Monday
into Tuesday.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal through the period,
with highs generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal and lows close
to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of rain is overspreading the TAF sites, taking a few
hours longer to reach central OH CMH/LCK around 23Z. As the rain
and isolate heavier shower continue, MVFR cigs will drop to IFR,
with a corresponding MVFR vsby reduction. Surface low tracking
east will see a pseudo-warm front laying out ahead of it, with
some deeper instability south of the track, and along the
leading edge of the rain shield. Thunder has been limited to a
slight chance in the south late today and early evening. At
CVG/LUK it appeared best to minimize as VCTS for these few
hours.

Ahead of the upper low reaching the CWA early Wednesday, deeper
lift will see thunder chances increase in the late morning and
maintain through the afternoon, generally along and southeast of
the I-71 corridor. While this includes all but the DAY terminal,
TS has been left out being the tail end of the forecast period.
The upper level trough axis should see potential of deeper
convection move eastward and not affect KCVG for the last 6
hours of the extended forecast period.

The broad nature of the low will have a quite changeable wind
direction but remain under about 6kt through the overnight,
increasing from the north to 8-10kt by the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks