098
FXUS63 KIWX 301827
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than a stray shower possible Wednesday, showers and
  storms are more possible Friday and Monday.

- Unseasonably warm through the week with highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure slides east supporting continued dry conditions into
Wednesday, with dew points dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s,
as well as a return to a warm air advection pattern. Lows are
expected to be slightly warmer than last night, in the 50s. With the
drier air lingering and despite the relatively low temperatures, dew
point depressions in the upper single digits to teens out ahead of a
weak cold front may allow for a low end slight chance PoP Wednesday
morning with greater chances in the west before temps warm and re-
establish higher dew point depressions in the I-69 corridor with
mixing ensuing.

Wednesday`s cold front rises back north as a warm front Thursday
allowing for our warmest day this week with highs securely in the
80s. Mid level temperature anomalies amounting to 1 to 2 SDs above
normal indicate possible capping and with minimal shear, this would
indicate any PoP shower/storm Thursday afternoon is more of the
pulse variety if they do form. Have retained slight to low end
chance PoPs for that set up.

There`s some question about how fast the cold front moves through on
Friday and there`s a lack of shear notable on models with much of
the forcing going north of the area. While some instability could be
around depending on the speed of the FROPA, this likely stays sub-
severe. The atmospheric column is dry on Saturday with the best
moisture residing south of US-24. Perhaps there`s a pop shower or
storm there during the afternoon so will retain some PoPs to
accommodate that.

After a brief break in the unsettled weather occurs for Sunday with
a surface high pressure center moving through, the Monday through
Tuesday period looks to see renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperature wise, the norm this week will be highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s, which is slightly above average for this time of
year. The warmest day will be Thursday with highs securely into the
80s, but both Wednesday and Friday have chances for a few areas to
see 80 degrees as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Low level ridge axis positioned west of the area this afternoon
will continue to provide west northwest winds around 10 knots
with a few gusts into the 15 to 18 knot range through around
21Z. After 21Z, gradual waning of diurnal mixing and weakening
gradient with the approaching low level ridge will result in a
brief period of light and variable winds this evening followed
by onset of light south winds. This ridge will be quite
progressive in nature allowing for south winds to increase into
the 10 to 15 knot range late tonight with a fairly early onset
of gusts to around 20 knots on Wednesday morning. Passage of
this ridge axis will also mark the onset of some fairly
substantial low-mid level moisture advection. The combination of
this moisture advection and the possibility of a weak remnant
convective vort max emanating from the Corn Belt could give rise
a few isolated showers very late tonight across NW Indiana.
Coverage of any shower activity should be limited and does not
appear to warrant any mention in terminal forecasts at this
time. Dry conditions persist into Wednesday with breezy
conditions and southwest winds gusting to around 25 knots. In
addition, there could be a very narrow temporal window for some
LLWS criteria at KSBN toward daybreak, but feel this setup is
marginal enough and of short enough duration to refrain from any
mention at this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Marsili