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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250400
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1200 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Period of near/below freezing temperatures expected early
 Thursday morning.

-Turning much warmer through the remainder of the period.

-A few chances for showers and thunderstorms return by Friday
 night and linger into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Initial focus remains on threat for frost development and risk for a
period of freezing temperatures. Clouds have stuck around much of
the day as anticipated, with the back edge of the stratus working
south across Lower Michigan. While models seem to agree on this back
edge working into the area this evening, the overall flow begins to
weaken with an area of higher 850 mb RH lingering in parts of the
area through 6Z and possible stalling over the southern areas
overnight.

Temperatures will rebound nicely Thursday after the frosty start as
high pressure builds across the area with plenty of sunshine and
light winds allowing for highs well into the 50s (few 60s west).
Lows Thursday night could dip into the mid 30s in NE areas that
could warrant a Frost Advisory, but will leave that for later
forecasts.

Remainder of the forecast will focus on 2 upper lows that eject from
the southwestern states northeast in to the Plains, never quite
reaching the region. The upper level pattern will help us warm
dramatically with an increase in low level moisture as well, but
still leaves some bigger questions as to timing, coverage and
intensity of a few rounds of precipitation. Pronounced 850 mb theta
e nose screams northeast across the area Friday, but low levels will
remain rather dry and best forcing/instability likely to remain well
west of the region closer to the upper level dynamics. Models are
about split on band of rain on the warm front Fri night vs either
confining to far NW areas or everything dissipating through the
evening. Will maintain higher pops, but feel they most likely will
need lowering as we get closer to the event.

2nd wave will progress a touch further east but still remain well
removed from the area. A cold front will push east in the Sunday
night to Monday time frame for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Risk for heavy rain and severe weather remains
questionable at this stage with best threat likely to persist west of
the area.

Temps will cool somewhat behind the front to end the period, but
with no strong push of cold air as any northern stream energy
remains well north into Canada above normal conditions will
persist.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Skies were clearing over the rest of northern Indiana. The base
of a stratocu deck at 030 was still intact over the FWA
terminal at this time. Skies should continue to clear from the
north with subsidence over the area. VFR conditions should
prevail through the period. Patchy ground fog is possible
toward daybreak in the VCNTY of the terminals, but operational
impacts are not expected.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Thursday for INZ005>009-018-027.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     INZ012>015-017-020-022>026-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
     216.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.
MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ078>081.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper