National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KJAN 200521 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1221 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

No significant adjustments were made to the overnight forecast for
this near term update with rainfall chances expected to increase
from the west toward daybreak. Confidence is increasing for a
west-east axis of heavy rainfall this weekend and will be
monitoring for a localized flash flooding threat. Precipitable
water up to 1.75 inches and persistent frontal forcing along the
I-20 corridor should fuel heavier convective rainfall, and the
biggest concern may exist for portions of northeast LA into
southeast AR where heavy rain fell just recently. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

The forecast remains on track, temperatures in the northwest have
warmed to right around 70 while temps in the southeast have
warmed to right around 85. Tonight the broad surface frontal
system will continue to move east into Canada sending a cold front
southeast towards the south central states. Northerly winds will
increase as the front approaches and puts an end to rain and storm
chances overnight until right before daybreak when they will
begin once again centered on the ArkLaMiss borders. Going into the
morning dense patchy fog will be likely to persist in the
southeastern portions of the CWA as well as patchy fog being
possible along and north of the HWY-84 corridor. Excess moisture
and light winds will make development easy and more likely as we
have seen for the last few days. Overnight low temperatures will
have a wide gradient from northwest to southeast. Temps in the
northwest will be seasonable in the in the low - mid 50s, while
low temps in the southeast will be seasonably warm in the low -
mid 60s. Throughout the course of the day tomorrow multiple
disturbances moving east will have our area progged for continued
rain and storm chances with a an isolated thunderstorm or two
being possible./KVP/

Saturday night through late next week...

We will be cool and wet to start Saturday night and Sunday as a
series of subtle shortwaves embedded within overall flow shift
across the area. Expect any thunder (which should be isolated to far
southern areas) Saturday night to diminish with waning instability
Sunday. Not expecting a wash out with QPF totaling around a half
to 3 quarters of an inch across the area Sunday. Ridging builds in
the wake of a final shortwave Sunday night into Monday, shutting
off rain chances. Temperatures will be noticeably cool these
first few days in the extended term with highs only in the 60s and
low 70s, about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Dry conditions will persist through the first half of next
week beneath upper ridging. Mid to late next week, clouds will
increase amid a warm, moist advection regime. Cannot rule out the
occasional sprinkle or isolated shower at this time. By week`s
end, temperatures will be above average with highs in the
80s./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A mix of MVFR/IFR flight categories will be observed at area TAF
sites through this 06Z forecast period. This will be as a result
of low stratus increasing across the area through the overnight
hours. Then toward day break and continuing throughout the day,
scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will plague the area as a disturbance moves west to
east across the region where a stationary frontal boundary
resides. Sites ahead of the front will observe calm to light
southerly winds overnight, while winds will be from the north
between 5-8 knots in the wake of it. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  50  61  43 /  70  90  70   0
Meridian      72  48  60  42 /  60  80  80   0
Vicksburg     65  50  62  43 /  70  90  50   0
Hattiesburg   81  55  63  45 /  50  60  70   0
Natchez       71  50  61  43 /  50  80  50   0
Greenville    59  51  61  44 /  80  80  30   0
Greenwood     61  48  61  42 /  80  90  40   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19