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000
FXUS62 KJAX 192309
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
709 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge will move off to the southeast Tonight, as a
cold front moves into region from the northeast. Low level moisture
along and west of the I75 corridor could result in a period of fog
toward dawn. This fog could briefly become dense. Passing high
cloudiness forecast through the night. Lows Tonight in the lower to
mid 60s expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Unseasonably warm conditions continue under the influence of a
dominating upper ridge. Temperatures continue to rise through the
80s and will challenge daily records across the region as peak temps
read near 90F (daily records in the climate section below).

Otherwise fair weather reigns across NE FL and SE GA as abnormally
warm temperatures drive a stubborn Atlantic sea breeze inland,
which should reach the I-95 corridor before dissipating this
evening. There is an outside chance of sprinkle north of
Jacksonville along the SE GA coast this afternoon as better
moisture, characterized by a cumulus Field, exists across GA.

Fair conditions continue into tonight as thin cirrus pushes through
the ridge flow and a weakening front approaches from the northwest.
The primary focus tonight and early Saturday will an advective low
stratus and fog event emanating from the Big Bend. Areas could
become locally dense by sunrise Saturday, particularly across the
Suwannee River valley and I-75 corridor, and it may require Dense
Fog headlines. &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Early morning fog will begin to clear during the early daylight
hours on Saturday. By the afternoon, an increase in moisture over
southeast Georgia from the approaching frontal boundary will bring
scattered showers and chances for isolated thunderstorms. A
Marginal risk of severe storms over northern southeast Georgia
due to strong daytime heating and an increase in moisture,
resulting in an unstable air mass, in which some isolated damaging
wind gusts may occur as storms develop. Come Sunday, the cold
front will begin to move through the area, with widespread showers
and isolated storms expected. Instability is not expected to be
as strong as Saturday, which will limit the the potential for any
severe storms. As the cold front lingers over north central
Florida, showers and isolated storms will remain for most of the
day on Monday, clearing out by the overnight hours into Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures during the weekend, as SE GA and NE FL
will see highs the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. Sunday will
be a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across
NE FL, and upper 70s to mid 80s across SE GA depending on the
front`s position.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Early morning fog will begin to clear during the early daylight
hours on Saturday. By the afternoon, an increase in moisture over
southeast Georgia from the approaching frontal boundary will bring
scattered showers and chances for isolated thunderstorms. A
Marginal risk of severe storms over northern southeast Georgia
due to strong daytime heating and an increase in moisture,
resulting in an unstable air mass, in which some isolated damaging
wind gusts may occur as storms develop. Come Sunday, the cold
front will begin to move through the area, with widespread showers
and isolated storms expected. Instability is not expected to be
as strong as Saturday, which will limit the the potential for any
severe storms. As the cold front lingers over north central
Florida, showers and isolated storms will remain for most of the
day on Monday, clearing out by the overnight hours into Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures during the weekend, as SE GA and NE FL
will see highs the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. Sunday will
be a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across
NE FL, and upper 70s to mid 80s across SE GA depending on the
front`s position.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

High pressure will begin to build into the region in the cold
front`s wake, leading to dry weather becoming established through
the remainder of the week. Temperatures will gradually warm
through the upcoming week, with daytime Highs primarily in the mid
70s on Tuesday, rising to the 80s by midweek, and finally
reaching again into the lower 90s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A period of fog is possible inland at KVQQ and KGNV toward dawn,
otherwise prevailing VFR conditions expected Tonight. Prevailing
VFR conditions are then expected through the day time hours on
Saturday. Although, there is a potential for thunderstorms at
KSSI during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Weak high pressure ridging continues with prevailing offshore flow
over local waters. Nearshore waters will experience a wind shift
toward shore this afternoon as the sea breeze develops. A weak cold
frontal approaches from the north Saturday, stall along the Florida
Georgia state line, and accelerated southward Sunday through Monday.
Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage this
weekend. A low end surge of northeast winds will follow behind the
front Monday then weaken and turn onshore Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure then builds across area waters once again.

RIP CURRENTS:

Moderate risk of rip currents will be present through the weekend,
particularly during the afternoon hours with sea breeze
development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  90  66  79 /   0  30  30  70
SSI  67  86  66  82 /   0  20  20  50
JAX  65  91  65  86 /   0  10  20  40
SGJ  64  91  64  88 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  61  90  62  84 /   0  10   0  20
OCF  61  89  62  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$