532
FXUS63 KJKL 191801
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
201 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather expected area wide from Sunday through Wednesday
  morning.

- Rain chances ramp back up Wednesday afternoon and persist into
  Saturday.

- Warm temperatures will be the story today through Wednesday,
  with afternoon highs topping out in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Forecast is on track. Morning obs have been blended into the
forecast without substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 704 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024

The forecast is on track so there are no changes. Fog will begin
to lift and burn off through mid-morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024

The short term weather pattern will feature building heights over
the region today, with a positively-tilted ridge axis over the area
tonight through the daytime period Monday.

Widespread valley fog will burn off and/or lift into a rising deck
of cumulus clouds mid- to late morning. Models depict a fairly dry
environment but with some modest instability. Thus, it will be
extremely difficult to get any shower or thunderstorm activity, with
the best chance over the mountains along the Virginia border where
PoPs barely reach the 15 PoPs needed for mention of precipitation in
the grids and forecasts. Given plentiful sun and just scattered
cumulus clouds in the afternoon, expect a continued warming trend
with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

With the ridge axis overhead and the loss of daytime convective
heating this evening into tonight, expect good to excellent
radiational cooling conditions under clear skies. COOP MOS indicates
the most sheltered valley locations may fall into the lower to
mid 50s, with upper 50 on ridgetops. Valley fog can be expected
once again but likely not quite as widespread and dense as this
morning.

Monday will feature a few scattered cumulus clouds, especially
across the southern half of the forecast area, but overall
precipitation-free conditions. Highs will climb a few more degrees
into the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024

The 19/00z model suite analysis is in good agreement at the start of
the forecast period showing 500H ridging extending from the
Tennessee Valley northeastward across the Central Appalachians, over
southern New England, and then on across Nova Scotia. At the
surface, high pressure ridging extends from Newfoundland down
along the Atlantic Coast to the Carolinas. Upstream, a potent
shortwave trough is passing over the Northern Rockies/
Intermountain West as it rotates around a parent ~548 dam low over
Saskatchewan. This system is beginning to phase with southern
stream Pacific energy passing over the Lower Colorado Valley.

The deep layer ridging will gradually retreat to the southeast on
Tuesday and Tuesday night while the southern stream energy and
and more northerly shortwave trough phase and form a new closed
low passing near/north of Lake Superior on Wednesday. This system
will bring slight height falls across the Ohio Valley as an
associated cold front approaches and sags south of the Ohio River
late Wednesday into Thursday. The front stalls out and becomes
the favored corridor for another weak disturbance to ride across
our region on Friday and Friday night. Shortwave ridging may
briefly return with quieter weather for much of Saturday before
yet another trough and frontal system approach.

Sensible weather will feature warm and dry weather persisting
through at least Wednesday morning before shower and thunderstorm
chances slowly creep southward later Wednesday and Wednesday
night. At this point, shear and instability appear modest but may
be sufficient to support a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon, and possibly again on
Thursday if the front makes particularly slow southward progress.
Temperatures will run well above normal through Wednesday night
with afternoon high temperatures climbing well into the middle
and even upper 80s. Meanwhile, nighttime lows moderate from the
mid 50s to mid 60s on Monday night to the mid and upper 60s on
Wednesday night. Episodes of showers and a few thunderstorms can
be expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast
period, through possibly with a better lull for most of Saturday.
Daily high temperatures should retreat to mainly the upper 70s by
Friday before warming back into the lower and middle 80s for
Saturday. Daily minimum temperatures are forecast to range within
a few degrees of 60 for most locations from Thursday night on
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Outside of late night - early morning valley fog, VFR conditions
and winds less than 10 kts are forecast through the period. The
fog is forecast to temporarily affect a few TAF sites with sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL