Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 230253
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1053 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

An incredibly active overnight across the Florida Keys and
surrounding coastal waters. Multiple rounds of strong to
marginally severe storms have been rolling across the area this
evening. Environment has remained conducive that many of these
embedded thunderstorms have been able to obtain rotation. As such
a Tornado Watch was issued by the Storm Prediction Center, valid
until 3 AM EDT Saturday. Several of the longer lived cells have
manage to produce some tornadic waterspouts that thankfully have
remained offshore. The heaviest rain initially fell across the
Upper Keys with rainfall totals of 3-4.5 inches so far. Meanwhile,
the remaining Keys have seen general amounts of 1-2 inches.

The back edge of this most recent round of showers and
thunderstorms is approaching Key West and pushing eastward.
Current radar shows the heaviest activity over the Bay waters
north of the island chain as well as the distant Straits of
Florida off the Middle and Upper Keys. Despite the downward trend
in this most recent activity, water vapor satellite imagery still
shows an impressive upper level low draped across the north Gulf
Coast. At the periphery of the cyclonic envelope there is still
some energy pivoting across the southeast Gulf of Mexico and
towards the region. This will need to be monitor as it the most
likely candidate for yet another round of potentially strong to
marginally severe weather overnight.

Therefore, the going forecast will maintain very high PoPs (90
percent) through the overnight. The wild card will be winds as we
have seen winds drastically fall off behind the main band of
convection. Models are all over the place as to how long this lull
lasts and how low with winds subside. Despite that, all solutions
show winds picking back up as the upper level low continues to
shift east overnight and into Saturday. Therefore, expect windy
conditions to redevelop at or prior to sunrise on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Small Craft Advisories continue across all waters for the
overnight. Strong east to southeast breezes will continue
overnight across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys as a Gulf
low deepens. Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to roll through our waters overnight through Saturday.
These thundery squalls will be capable of damaging wind gusts,
locally heavy rainfall, isolated large hail, and perhaps a violent
waterspout or two. Following rounds of storms, breezes will
slacken breifly before strong southerly breezes return. The heavy
weather will depart Saturday evening as fresh to strong breezes
shift to the northwest. Breezes will ultimately shift quickly to
the northeast then east Monday and Monday night, slackening by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

MVFR CIGs will continue as convection continues to wane and drift
eastward. Additional convection can be seen across the southeast
Gulf of Mexico and moving eastward. Given the sparse and widely
scattered nature of the thunderstorms, will transition back to
VCSH until we get a better idea of how the next round may unfold.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DP

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