Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232345
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The primary focus through Tuesday morning deals with a strong
cold front passage. The cold front is in association with the
upper ridge giving way to a trough and the beginning of a closed
low. Ahead of the front, a light southeast breeze and sunshine
pushed temps into the upper 60s for much of the area today.

This evening... Slowed the progression of the PoP somewhat through
06z per RAP and HRRR trends. As of 20z, convective initiation is
underway off the Cheyenne Divide and is nearing the WY/NE border.
Brought schc into the eastern panhandle at 00z, then gradually
increase PoP and coverage eastward through the evening. Included
TSRA through 02z in the west given decent shear and mid-level lapse
rates. One issue through the late evening may be dry air in the
lower levels and how quick the column saturates. Despite
southeasterly flow, dew point depressions approach 30F this
afternoon across the Sandhills and into the western Panhandle.

Overnight... The combination of better forcing/lift with the fropa,
broad isentropic lift (best seen around 300K, roughly correlating to
H7-8), and steady dew points supports more widespread precip after
06z. The greatest CAA begins generally after 06z with H85 temps
falling about 5C through 12z. However, with the coldest air lagging
well behind, Looking at all rain. A mix is possible in the panhandle
toward 12z where temps drop into the mid 30s. Made little change to
forecast lows overall with mid/upper 30s west and lower 40s east.



.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

An upper trough and closed will dig across South Dakota and
Wyoming into Nebraska. The upper low center is forecast to track
over central Cherry County by late Tuesday afternoon. During the
morning, likely rain chances east of Gordon through Hayes Center.
In the afternoon, rain chances not expected in far southwest
zones, as better lift will reside along and ahead of advancing
cold front moving into the eastern zones. Rain chance will also
remain or increase to likely over most of north central Nebraska
as the upper low drops south. Northerly winds will also range from
20 to 30 mph behind the front through the day. Due to overcast
skies, weak cold air advection, and rain expected, highs were
trended down a few more degrees to the low 40s northwest
Sandhills to near 50 far eastern zones.

Models in better agreement in the forecast track of this system
Tuesday night into Wednesday, moving the low central through
central Nebraska 06z Wednesday and near the Nebr/Ks border by 12z
Wednesday. Wrap around precipitation is expected to the east and
north of this system Tuesday night, and even lingering into
Wednesday morning across the far southeast zones. Tuesday night,
likely POPs eastern parts of nctrl into central Nebraska lowering
to a slight chance far southwest zones. This followed by a
lingering, mainly slight chance across southeast zones Wednesday
morning. Models are mostly warm enough Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, to keep precipitation type as mainly rain,
except a rain/snow mix or snow on the northwest side of the upper
low center. Any snow accumulations limited to grassy surfaces and
only a tenth or two of snow expected at most. Sun return by
Wednesday afternoon all areas with lower 60s northwest and upper
50s southeast.

Thursday through Friday, northwest flow aloft will prevail. A
cold front is forecast to move in Wednesday night, cooling highs
Thursday to the upper 50s with northwest winds 20-30 mph. There
is a slight chance for rain Thursday morning, however this is
mainly supported by the ECMWF. Warming to the upper 60s Friday as
upper ridge to the west nudges eastward. An upper trough will digs
across the Great Basin Saturday through Monday. The GFS continues
to support a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across
the west Saturday evening as a lead disturbance may eject onto the
Central High Plains. Otherwise, mainly dry and mild with highs in
the low to mid 70s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A strong cold front and upper level low will track across western
and north central Nebraska over the next 24 to 36 hours, leading
to overcast conditions and occasional rain. MVFR ceilings are
likely after 12z Tuesday at the KLBF terminal, and after 09z
Tuesday at the KVTN terminal. Winds will shift to the northwest
overnight and increase to 10 to 20 KTS with gusts approaching 30
KTS by mid morning Tuesday. Light rain will be possible after 09z
Tuesday at the KLBF terminal and after 06z Tuesday at the KVTN
terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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