Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 280528
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1228 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two upper level disturbances are expected to affect wrn/ncntl
  Nebraska this weekend and Monday.

- Rain chances continue Saturday night and Sunday. Rain changing
  to wet snow is likely Sunday night and Monday. Travel impacts
  are possible Sunday night and Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Until the loss of daytime heating occurs this evening, northwest
flow aloft may support sprinkles or light showers. The HRRR and
radar show this activity forming off the Black Hills, Pine Ridge and
the Cheyenne divide.

Parts of ncntl Nebraska get patchy fog tonight. This forecast is
supported by the short term model blend and a developing warm front
across the region which should provide a focus for moisture pooling.
It appears this will be a marginal event. Light south winds and
increasing moisture aloft will likely limit the radiational cooling
necessary for dense fog.

Forecast interests revolve around a warm front and milder
temperatures Thursday. The RAP and HRRR models are leading the model
pack with highs in the 60s along and west of highway 83 but it`s
worth noting the warmest air will still be across ern Colo/ern WY at
21z Thursday. Thus, the prospect of highs reaching 70 are low at
this point. There is also high cloudiness moving in late in the
afternoon. Winds aloft, northwest today, will flatten and become
west with increasing moisture above 500mb, according to the RAP
model.

The warm air aloft, aka a thermal ridge, will move through wrn and
ncntl Nebraska Thursday night with a weak Pacific to follow Friday
morning.

Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night lean on the short term
model blend plus bias correction for lows in the 20s tonight and 30s
Thursday night. Continuous warm air advection is the reason for
using the warmer model blend versus the cooler guidance blend which
works the better during radiational cooling events.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

In the wake of the Pacific cold front Friday, sfc low pressure
will form on the central high Plains and remain in place
Saturday and Sunday. This low will kick out east through KS
Monday with a shot of Canadian high pressure building in behind
it. Cold air will remain in place Tuesday with milder air
returning Wednesday.

Near or below average temperatures are in place Friday through
Tuesday and this is consistent with low pressure drawing cooler air
through the nrn Plains, which are mostly snow covered.

There is little change in the extended precipitation forecast. Rain-
snow chances continue Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The upper low off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest will drift very slowly south and
eject energy through the Rockies and into the cntl/nrn Plains in two
pieces. The first, Saturday night and Sunday would most likely be
rain associated with warm air advection. The second, Sunday night
into Monday would be rain or wet snow.

The setup, a stalled cold front across srn Nebraska or nrn KS should
pool moisture north of the front and the upper level dynamics would
support forcing or lift. Moisture for both systems appears
sufficient, even abundant for the second system with PWAT above 0.50
inches in the GFS. The WPC QPF forecast has responded by increasing
amounts to 0.25 to 1 inch of liquid. This is certainly consistent
with the ECM ensemble; less so with the drier GFS ensemble which is
south of the ECM ens. WPC favors the wetter ECM ens for this
forecast which places the best amounts across nrn Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Scattered high clouds will drift into the area later tonight
into the daytime hours on Thursday. Ceilings will be around
25000 FT AGL. Winds will be from the southwest or south over the
next 24 hours, generally around 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Buttler


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