000
FXUS63 KLBF 192017
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is likely south and west of North Platte tonight
  and Saturday. No travel impacts are expected.

- The next significant storm system could affect wrn/ncntl
  Nebraska Thursday and Friday next week. The potential for
  strong or severe thunderstorms is uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The forecast tonight through Saturday night revolves around the fate
of an upper level disturbance moving through Colorado. The latest
guidance suggests measureable rain and snow will remain mostly south
and west of North Platte. The dry air associated a late season high
pressure system from Canada should delay low level saturation in
many areas east of Ogallala until Saturday afternoon. By then the
best forcing or dynamics will be moving through KS, away from swrn
Nebraska. So, the moisture will be in place for precipitation
Saturday afternoon, but the forcing will be too weak for much more
than sprinkles or flurries.

The POP and QPF forecast leans on the HREF, or high resolution
ensemble forecast. This forecast generated an inch or less snow
across parts of the srn Panhandle and swrn Nebraska.

The temperature forecast leans on the the short term model blend,
the HRRR and RAP models which were warmer tonight than the NBM in
many areas, and cooler in many areas Saturday. The reason for this
is cloud cover which will block radiational cooling tonight and
solar insolation Saturday across most areas along and south of
highway 2.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Late season high pressure from Canada will build south and be
located over TX/OK/KS/MO by Sunday afternoon. In response to sfc low
pressure developing over wrn Canada, a warm front should push east
into wrn Nebraska.

There is not much change in the temperature forecast Sunday through
Tuesday; highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday warm into the 60s and 70s
Monday followed by a weak Pacific cold front Tuesday. Cool air will
back into Wednesday.

The main weather system next week will affect wrn and ncntl Nebraska
Thursday and Friday. The sfc low isn`t particularly deep near 993 mb
but the attendant warm front could provide excellent focus for
thunderstorms across ncntl Nebraska Thursday aftn/evening or perhaps
earlier. It is too early too speculate on the severe threat but
moisture, focus and shear will be in place. If the model timing is
correct, wrn and ncntl Nebraska will be post-frontal Friday. POPs
for this event are 40-60 percent which could be too high west of
highway 83 where somewhat drier air will be in place. The drier,
slower ECM shows a strong cap ahead of the upper low, while the
faster, wetter GFS has weakened the cap ahead of the dynamics.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An upper level disturbance across Colo this afternoon will move
east into nrn KS producing MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys in -SN
across swrn Nebraska. These flight conditions are already underway
across nern Colo and could begin to affect areas of swrn Nebraska
south of I-80 this aftn.

The best chance for compromised flight conditions appears to be
12z-18z Saturday. It is this time frame when the MVFR/IFR is
expected to spread north into the srn Panhandle.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC