Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
356 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Low sensible weather concerns today with dry conditions and highs
roughly 16-24 degrees warmer than yesterday, warmest in
northwestern NEB with highs reading into the mid 60s. Latest
NtMicro RGB and IR satellite imagery shows low clouds with
ceilings around 3-6 kft across southwestern NEB and low- to mid-
level clouds elsewhere. Local radar display shows scattered
showers moving out of far north central NEB and across the eastern
Sandhills. Latest water vapor loop shows an upper level closed
low over central NEB with a ridge upstream extending from the
Northern Intermountain West and across the Dakotas.

Dry weather is expected to prevail today with the closed low
moving southeast into eastern KS by the early afternoon.
Meanwhile, upper ridging will move over western NEB with modest
500 hPa height rises spreading across the region. Surface high
pressure currently centered over the northern Central High Plains
will evolve south today into the Southern Plains extending into
the eastern Central Plains. The next upper-level trough, currently
across Northern Alberta-southern British Columbia, will develop
and track to Saskatchewan-eastern MT today then move into the
Central High Plains by late tonight. This will promote low-end
rain chances across portions of northwestern NEB late tonight.
Meanwhile, a weak surface cold front will advance southeast
across the area from late evening-small hours overnight. Gusts as
high as 35 MPH are possible with the frontal passage late tonight
across northwestern NEB and the eastern Panhandle. Highs will be
warmer than yesterday, albeit still near to slightly below
seasonable values. Lows tonight are expected to be near
seasonable values.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The primary forecast story for western Nebraska heading into the
weekend is it actually feeling like spring! An upper ridge
amplifies over the Rockies and spreads east onto the Plains while
high pressure at the surface sits over the Mississippi Valley.

Thursday...Shaping up to be the coolest day over the next several
as a cold front passes through during the morning and high
pressure slides off the Rockies later in the day. Trended toward
the cooler end of guidance given strong CAA which peaks midday,
morning cloud cover (which could be prolonged), and brisk
northerly flow. Forecast highs range from upper 50s north to lower
60s far south. Kept chance of rain through 18z to account for
leftover moisture post fropa. Of note will be winds, particularly
during the morning and early afternoon. Trended toward the higher
speeds in ConsMos as a stout PV anomaly quickly follows the fropa
and sfc pressure changes will likely exceed 1 mb/hr. Gusts will
approach 35 mph, but could be higher as H85 flow nears 40 kts and
mechanical mixing would easily bring that to the sfc.

Friday and beyond...Big warm-up in store with the building ridge
and alternating downslope/southerly flow H85-sfc. The lack of mid-
level features and the presence of sfc high pressure will result
in overall subsidence and little moisture advection through Sunday
(until the evening). With fair skies, deep mixing, and an H85
thermal ridge developing over the weekend, temps should steadily
increase to near 70F Fri, well into the 70s Sat, and pushing 80
Sun. The next system is progged for late Sunday or Monday (ECM
slightly more progressive than GFS). Kept small TSRA chances each
day due to uncertainty with fropa timing. Aloft, the ridge begins
to break down, which is synoptically favorable for elevated fire
weather conditions. Currently, SW Neb has the lowest RH near 20
percent and winds remain below 15 mph.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

For the KLBF terminal: Expect some isolated showers in the
vicinity of the terminal through 08z with MVFR Ceilings expected
through this time. Ceilings will gradually increase into the mid
morning hours on Wednesday with clearing skies expected
there after. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will clear overnight. In
the meantime, expect ceilings around 6000 FT AGL through 11z




LONG TERM...Snively
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