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000
FXUS66 KLOX 140959
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
259 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/156 AM.

Cool, showery weather will persist through Sunday with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Accumulating snow and wintry conditions
are expected at higher elevations. A warming trend will begin
Monday with dry and warmer weather expected through the end of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/247 AM.

An upper low over Central California continues to send bands of
showers and isolated thunderstorms into the Central Coast early
this morning, while areas south of Santa Barbara have been
relatively quiet. Models have been consistent showing a second
upper low, currently just west of the Bay Area, rotating through
the area by this afternoon. This will push the threat of showers
and thunderstorms south into Ventura and LA Counties later this
morning and afternoon with locally heavy rain and possibly small
hail. This is a more convective pattern than yesterday which means
precip will be more showery with some sunny breaks, but most
areas should at least get some additional precipitation, generally
a half inch or less, but locally higher near thunderstorms. Snow
levels have lowered to around 4500 feet and could lower to as low
as 3500-4000 feet this morning and in heavier showers this
afternoon.

Showers and storms expected to taper off quickly this evening,
except some lingering showers possible over the northern
mountains near the LA/Kern County line. Snow levels by that time
expected to be closer to 5000 feet so any precip on the Grapevine
later tonight should be in the form of rain.

Dry and warmer weather expected Monday with some locally breezy
north winds. Warmer again Tuesday as high pressure aloft starts
to build from the west and light offshore flow develops. Warmer
valleys expected to reach 80 degrees while interior coastal areas
like Downtown LA and San Luis Obispo reach the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/259 AM.

High pressure aloft expected to last at least through Wednesday
with another degree or two of warming. By the end of the week a
weak trough will replace the ridge and onshore flow will return
for slightly cooler weather and possibly a return of the marine
layer to coastal areas. This pattern will be in place at least
through next Saturday with no rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0041Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, there was only a 5000 ft deep moist layer.

Low confidence in TAFs Cig and Vis will change frequently through
the period. All flight cats are possible but low MVFR is most
probable. LIFR conds in dense fog is most possible for KSMX, KSBP
and KPRB.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There will likely be frequent changes
in cig and vis mostly likely above 010 but with a 20 percent chc
of brief BKN008 conds. Low confidence in wind direction forecast.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There will likely be frequent
changes in cig heights, especially during rain.

&&

.MARINE...13/820 PM.

Complex forecast through Monday afternoon, as conds will be
marginally close to thresholds for Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds and seas.

For all the Outer Waters and the inner waters N of Point Sal, SCA
level SE to S winds will shift to the W to NW this evening. For
the outer waters, conditions are expected to be at or near SCA
level much the time through at least Wed. There may be some lulls
in the winds this evening and mid-day Sunday. The biggest lulls
will occur across the southern Outer Waters and the inner waters
N of Point Sal. By Monday afternoon, SCA winds will strengthen
and there is a 20% chance of Gale Force winds. SCA winds may last
though Thursday, strongest during the afternoon and evenings.

In the SBA Channel, after S to SE winds subside this evening,
there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level W winds Sun eve into Monday
morning, mainly in western sections. SCA level W-NW winds are
likely Mon afternoon into Mon night.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 40% chance of SCA level
NW winds Mon evening.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for all the coastal
waters waters tonight and Sun, especially north of Pt. Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this
      afternoon for zones 353-376-377-379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM
      PDT this evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 2
      AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld/Rorke
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox