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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211121 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Scattered showers across the southern half of the state will
continue to push south through the morning hours with dry
conditions expected for the rest of the day. Clouds will follow
suit with a slightly longer timeline before clear sky conditions
become likely this afternoon/evening.

Sfc ridging will shift eastward toward the state today and
tonight with H500 flow largely out of the N/NW. This will provide
clear sky conditions and light winds tonight which will allow
temperatures to fall quickly after sunset, especially with dry air
in place. Available data continues to indicate temperatures in
the mid 30s F are likely across much of northern Arkansas as well
as some areas across western and central parts of the state. Areas
where confidence is highest in seeing temperatures in the mid 30s
F (northern AR) have been included in a Frost Advisory for Monday
morning.

Sfc ridging will linger through Monday night with temperatures
remaining below normal. Temperatures will remain very cool for
Tuesday morning, but likely too warm for any frost concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

At the start of the period, an expansive sfc ridge wl extend fm the
southeastern states back to the west across much of the Gulf coastal
region. As a result, a southwest wind flow wl be in place acrs AR on
Tue. This wl allow for a decent warm-up over the state with highs
warming into the lower and mid 70s.

Meanwhile, NW flow aloft wl bring a SWT and assocd CDFNT into AR Tue
night and Wed. Moisture return still appears to be somewhat limited
ahead of these features, but have introduced some low PoPs (20-30%)
later Wed and Wed night. The ECMWF and GFS solutions have come into
better agreement this mrng by stalling out of the fntl bndry acrs
southern AR on Thu. Low rain chcs rmn in the fcst on Thu, primarily
over N AR.

The aforementioned sfc fnt wl return to the north as a warm fnt Thu
night into Fri in response to a new storm system apchg fm the west.
Shower and thunderstorm chcs wl incrs fm the west heading into Sat
as the assocd CDFNT works closer to the state.

There rmns some uncertainties with this system, mainly regarding
timing difference between the ECMWF and the faster GFS. Also, with
the main sfc low, and assocd upper dynamics, fcst to pass well north
the region, the confidence for organized wx still rmns somewhat
limited attm, but wl cont to be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Rain continues to shift southeast and will come to an end over the
next 1-2 hours with dry conditions expected for the remainder of
the period. VFR conditions expected with clearing sky conditions
through the afternoon hours. Winds will be N-NE, some occasional
gusts above 15 kts possible, becoming nearly calm overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  39  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         65  39  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       60  36  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  39  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  65  43  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     63  42  69  46 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  62  36  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        63  40  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     63  41  68  46 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   65  39  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  38  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  42  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...67