Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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360 FXUS64 KLZK 040924 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 424 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Currently, skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the region. Cloud cover was a mixture of low stratus (mainly over the Ern half of AR) to high clouds (mainly over the Wrn half of AR). The radar was quiet locally however convective activity was noted over the Plains. Patchy fog had developed over portions of state but nothing concentrated enough to warrant a fog advisory at this time. Temperatures were starting out in the 60s with calm or light winds. Today, the aforementioned convection will move across the state beneath a weak upper level disturbance. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be scattered in nature, so not everyone will see rainfall at their particular location. The best PoP chances will be over NW AR into N-Cntrl AR, including portions of Cntrl, SE, and Ern AR. Organized strong to severe thunderstorms seem unlikely, however strong winds or marginally severe hail could be possible. Highs today should top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points will be in the lower to mid 60s. Tonight, rain chances will decrease with lows falling into the 60s. On Sunday, a much stronger upper level impulse will move through background SWrly flow. This will spark off a new round of showers and thunderstorms. Convection should then track from SW to NE across the state through the daytime. For now, the threat for severe weather appears low. PoP chances are higher with the Sunday system as confidence is much higher in widespread QPF vs Saturday. By Sunday night, PoPs will decrease from the SW as the upper system moves into the OH Valley. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation. High temperatures should climb into the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The extended period will start off with a large storm system tracking from the Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. The system will try to drag a cold front into the region late Monday night/Tuesday, but the front will likely stall just north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft. Ahead of the front, strong/severe thunderstorms will be likely in the central/southern Plains on Monday. It is possible that some severe weather could make it into western Arkansas after dark/early Tuesday. Otherwise, warmer conditions are expected locally, with well above average temperatures. Severe weather chances will go up Tuesday/Wednesday as shortwaves rotating around the system to the north interact with the stalled front. Afternoon CAPE values from 2000 to 3000+ J/kg seem reasonable, and there should be enough wind energy/shear to support at least isolated tornadoes. As the period ends, the system to the north will wobble toward New England. Behind the system, a northwest wind flow will develop. The front that halted to the north will be driven through the region on Thursday with one last round of hit/miss thunderstorms. Cooler/drier and more seasonable air will follow the front on Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A couple locations were hovering near or at MVFR CIGs, otherwise most locations were VFR as of 06z. Some patchy FG/low stratus is expected to develop and impact area terminals, with conds ranging from MVFR to IFR. The next round of SHRA/TSRA will arrive from the W and NW on Sat with the passage of another weak upper level disturbance. Highest confidence in PoPs would be over Cntrl sections of the state during the afternoon time frame. This activity will push SE with time and should wind down near sunset with VFR conds returning. Winds will be light through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 82 64 77 64 / 50 30 90 70 Camden AR 85 64 76 64 / 40 30 80 30 Harrison AR 79 60 71 60 / 50 40 90 50 Hot Springs AR 83 64 75 63 / 50 50 90 40 Little Rock AR 84 67 78 66 / 40 40 90 50 Monticello AR 84 66 80 67 / 50 30 70 40 Mount Ida AR 83 63 74 63 / 50 50 100 30 Mountain Home AR 80 60 73 62 / 50 30 90 60 Newport AR 82 64 79 64 / 50 30 90 70 Pine Bluff AR 84 65 78 65 / 40 30 90 50 Russellville AR 82 63 75 63 / 50 40 90 40 Searcy AR 82 63 77 64 / 50 30 90 70 Stuttgart AR 83 65 78 66 / 40 30 90 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...70