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000
FXUS64 KLZK 090802
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Mosaic radar imgry depicted a broad precipitation shield acrs the
Srn half of the state early this mrng, w/ scattered and elevated
thunderstorms over much of the ARKLATEX region, as strong
WAA/isentropic ascent continues over the region. Precipitation
amounts have not been overzealous as of yet, w/ most of Srn AR
receiving widespread radar estimated amounts of 1-2 inches, and some
local pockets of 3+ inches in Cntrl AR fm isolated Mon night
supercells.

QPF amounts over the next 24-36 hrs are still of concern for
portions of Srn AR, w/ additional amounts of 3 to 4 inches still
expected. A lingering outflow bndry from ongoing convection, strong
low-lvl poleward moisture transport and anomalous PWAT values of 1.6-
1.8 inches, overlaid by broad upper-lvl diffluent flow wl cont to
support a heavy rainfall threat thru the day today.

The most recent suite of CAM guidance suggests invigoration of
antecedent convection near 12Z Tues mrng, w/ additional HREF mean
12hr QPF values of 2-3 inches possible acrs S/Wrn to Srn AR. A brief
lull in intense convection may be seen later Tues aftn, before
another rd of convective development ensues, this time acrs Srn
Cntrl to S/Ern AR, where another swath of heavy to excessive
rainfall wl be possible, w/ rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches possible
again.

Overall, a large swath of heavy to excessive rainfall, with fcst
totals of 5 to 6 inches is still expected acrs the Srn portion of
the FA thru Wed mrng. Flash flooding and river flooding wl cont to
be the primary concern thru the end of the short term PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The period will begin with a potent storm system exiting the region
to the northeast toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Gusty northwest
winds will be noted behind the system Thursday, with some leftover
showers in the morning. A Wind Advisory may be required.

On Friday into the weekend, broad ridging in the Plains will build
over Arkansas. Conditions will become tranquil, and there is no rain
in the forecast. Temperatures will go from seasonal to well above
average.

As the period ends, a new storm system in the southwest United
States will be on the verge of ejecting into the Rockies/Plains.
Ahead of the system, a south/southwest flow will bring increasing
moisture into the region. This will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

MVFR to IFR condns were ongoing around the FA early Tues AM, w/
scattered SHRA over Cntrl AR, and a large precip shield over the
Srn half of the state, w/ embedded TS. Mixed category condns and
precip are expected to continue thru at least 12Z Tues mrng, w/
IFR CIGs prevailing thru the day, and intermittent precip/TS and
reduced VISBY`s at most Cntrl to Srn terminals. Winds wl be
primarily Erly, w/ E-N/Erly winds at Nrn terminals, and E-S/Erly
winds at Cntrl and Srn terminals thru Tues aftn.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  60  69  52 /  90  90 100  80
Camden AR         72  61  73  50 / 100 100 100  60
Harrison AR       67  55  63  47 /  80  80  90  70
Hot Springs AR    67  60  71  50 /  90  90 100  70
Little Rock   AR  70  63  73  54 /  90 100 100  70
Monticello AR     74  66  74  55 / 100 100 100  60
Mount Ida AR      67  59  71  49 /  80  90 100  70
Mountain Home AR  69  56  65  48 /  80  80  90  80
Newport AR        67  61  69  52 /  90  90 100  80
Pine Bluff AR     71  63  73  53 / 100 100 100  70
Russellville AR   68  60  70  50 /  90  90 100  70
Searcy AR         67  60  71  51 /  90 100 100  80
Stuttgart AR      68  63  71  53 / 100 100 100  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ052>057-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...72