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000
FXUS64 KMEG 121736
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Not much going on across the Mid-South at this time. A pronounced
ridge sits over the InterMountain West with dry, northwesterly
flow aloft across the Midwest into the OH/MS Valleys. Gusty
northwest wind will continue through this afternoon with
occasional gusts to 35 mph. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny and dry
conditions with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

MJ

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Dry and cool weather will prevail through the weekend as upper
level ridging dominates. A more active pattern will begin early
next week with the potential for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Over the next several days, a low amplitude upper level ridge will
set up over the southern Plains. As a result, there is little to
no chance of rain in sight through the weekend. Temperatures
should be on the cool side today in the upper 60s as CAA continues
with gusty northwesterly winds behind yesterday`s strong cold
front. After the surface high slides over to the FL Peninsula
tomorrow afternoon, return flow will quickly nudge temperatures
back up to near 80 degrees. Expect a similarly warm and dry Sunday
under the same conditions.

The attention grabber in this forecast period is the severe
weather potential on Tuesday. A deep upper level trough looks to
dig across the central and southern Plains early Tuesday
afternoon as an associated surface low and trailing cold front
pivot through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The subsequent
kinematics will result in quite a high shear environment (90%
probability of > 50 kt of bulk shear via the LREF), especially
across the Ozarks.

Moisture should be plentiful across the region due to the strong
southerly flow fields ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
Sustained winds between 20-25 MPH are expected for areas along
and west of the MS River on Tuesday, acting as a very efficient
conveyor belt for warm, moist Gulf Coast air. The main uncertainty
lies in how much uncapped instability is able to materialize
ahead of the front. Early LREF probabilities indicate about a
50/50 shot of CAPE > 500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. However,
further dissecting this into individual models, this is heavily
weighted by the GEFS. The other models` contributions to the grand
ensemble all keep the most favorable thermodynamics confined to
the ArkLaTex. Overall, a conditional threat of severe weather
exists on Tuesday for the western half of the CWA.

Forecast surface analyses depict a reinforcing front moving
through on Wednesday afternoon, stalling out somewhere along the
central Gulf states on Thursday. This front may retrograde back
to the north some on Friday and Saturday, keeping PoPs in the
30-40% range daily through next weekend. Temperatures should be
5-10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s Monday through
Thursday.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR. WNW winds at 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts will diminish early
this evening and become light W/SW overnight. SW winds will begin
to increase to Saturday across the Delta region with some gusts to
20 kts at JBR.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM