365
FXUS62 KMFL 010707
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
307 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The overall pattern across the region highlights a departing
shortwave trough on Wednesday and a quasi-unstable pattern
thereafter with ongoing impulses of vorticity advection through
the area. The weather for today will largely be similar to
yesterday since the trough is still present over South Florida, so
expect more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
brunt of the convection should develop over the interior as near
surface flow will remain out of the east, but surface flow will be
weaker today and thus allow for any convection over the interior
to drift towards the east coast under a westerly/northwesterly
steering flow.

For Thursday, residual moisture and the aforementioned vorticity
pulses will provide energy for a few showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm chance again, but activity will be less
since the stronger forcing will have departed. Temperatures will
range from the low to mid 80s over the east coast metro areas to
the upper 80s and near 90 over the interior sections today and
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

As we move into the latter half of the week, the trough will
make its exit eastward into the Atlantic as a mid-level ridge
gradually moves into the Southeast. Through the majority of the
long term, a weak body of surface high pressure will have the main
influence on the conditions over the Peninsula, thus keeping it
drier and warm. The high will be situated over the western
Atlantic which will lead to consistent easterly flow near the
surface. With the E/SE flow, there will be a chance (15-30%) for
isolated to scattered showers daily due to modest moisture
advection and pooling. Showers and isolated storms could be
enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes. However, in the
current ensemble outlook, widespread heavy rainfall, or
significant instability, does not appear to be a threat for the
long term. Caution will need to be taken with any slow-moving rain
showers due to sensitivity to flash flooding, especially when the
grounds are saturated.

Temperatures will be near to just above-normal through the
extended period. The highs will be rise into the upper 80s to low
90s across the SW and interior, while remaining in the low to mid
80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the
60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered shower activity will be possible near the
east coast terminals overnight and into the morning hours. Some
thunderstorms may develop early this afternoon near the east coast
terminals before shifting towards the interior later in the
afternoon. Light winds through the overnight hours will increase
out of ESE late Wednesday morning. At KAPF, winds increase early
this afternoon out of the SW as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the week.
There will be further chances for some scattered showers and a
couple isolated storms, which could create locally hazardous
conditions. However, minus the convective threat there is not
expected to be concerns. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet
in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.
Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

A high risk of rip currents will be present for the Palm beaches
on Wednesday with a lingering swell. The rest of the coast will
see a moderate risk and it is likely that at least an elevated
risk continues for all beaches along the Atlantic coast through
the end of the week as breezy onshore flow continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  73  86  73 /  40  20  20  10
West Kendall     85  71  86  72 /  50  20  20  10
Opa-Locka        85  73  86  73 /  40  20  20  10
Homestead        83  72  83  72 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  85  74  85  74 /  40  20  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  84  73  84  73 /  40  20  20  10
Pembroke Pines   85  73  85  73 /  40  20  20  10
West Palm Beach  84  70  85  71 /  40  20  20  10
Boca Raton       85  73  84  73 /  40  20  20  10
Naples           85  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CWC