Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 220912
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Lejeune KB...DoD USMC
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
512 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Light northeasterly winds this morning will increase and become
southeasterly by late-morning. The morning inversion will mix out
between 9-11 am this morning. By mid to late-afternoon, the risk
of showers and isolated thunderstorms will steadily increase, with
wetting rainfall expected by the end of the day. Strong winds and
wetting rainfall is expected tonight into Saturday, along with a
continued risk of thunderstorms.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 2 until 1700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph early this morning,
becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 mph
by late-morning. Gusts up to 25 mph in the late
morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast 15
                    to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 64054 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 52.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.09 to 30.21 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  73  76  82  85  87  92  95  95  95  95
Weather cov.....                    SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   1
Temp............49  51  56  61  64  66  66  66  64  64  63
RH..............96  96  83  75  70  65  65  68  73  75  78
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   10  12  12  12  13  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.    9   14  18  23  23  23  23  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  13  15  18  21  22  22  22  21  20  18
LVORI...........5   5   4   3   3   1   1   1   3   3   3
ADI.............12  13  19  33  47  52  52  49  41  35  27
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   5   16  32  57  64  64  58  44  35  24
Sfc pres (in)...018 020 020 021 021 020 018 017 014 012 009

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms
through the night.
LAL.................1 until 2300, then 2 until 0500, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30
                    mph after 3 am.
Vent Rate...........Min 5979 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 12.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.78 to 30.08 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........96  97  97  95  92  90  91  92  92  92  92  92
Weather cov.....DEF DEF LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
Temp............62  61  60  60  60  60  61  61  62  62  62  62
RH..............81  84  87  90  87  90  87  90  87  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  11  11  10  9   10  12  13  16  19  21  21
20 FT wind gust.23  18  18  14  14  14  18  18  23  27  27  32
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE
Transp wind spd.18  16  14  14  15  20  18  23  23  26  28  30
LVORI...........3   4   4   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   4
ADI.............24  14  12  12  13  18  16  21  21  24  25  27
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.18  7   6   6   7   9   8   13  15  17  15  25
Sfc pres (in)...008 007 005 004 002 000 996 993 989 985 981 978

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and a chance of
thunderstorms through the day.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around
                    35 mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 15 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......Max 2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 30 mph becoming southwest 10 to 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 38295 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 41.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.53 to 29.75 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........91     91     89     86     81     83
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3
Temp............62     61     64     67     70     70
RH..............97     100    97     87     78     76
20 ft wind......S 21   S 19   S 16   S 13   SW 11  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.32     27     23     18     18     14
Mix hgt (ft)....800    800    1100   1800   2100   1900
Transport wind..S 31   S 26   S 22   SW 20  SW 16  W 13
LVORI...........4      4      4      4      3      3
ADI.............28     29     30     35     31     24
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.25     20     25     35     33     24
Sfc pres (in)...29.75  29.71  29.68  29.63  29.58  29.54

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Brett Evans
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408129.0/MHX
.DELDT 03/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brett.evans@usmc.mil


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