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000
FXUS63 KMKX 230934
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest to west winds and very low relative humidity
  values this afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
  this evening. Small hail and gusty winds are possible in the
  stronger storms.

- Potential for freeze conditions later tonight, and
  frost/freeze conditions likely later Wednesday night.

- More active pattern with thunderstorm potential at times Friday
  into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today through Wednesday:

Showers have moved east of the area, with some middle to high
clouds lingering in its wake. Gusty southwest winds with fairly
deep mixing should continue into this afternoon. Dew points
should drop to or remain in the 30s this afternoon, which should
bring low to very low relative humidity values. See Fire
Weather section for more information.

Temperatures should rise into the upper 60s over most of the
area, despite middle to high clouds at times. The mild start to
the day should allow these highs to be reached. There may be
some breaks in these clouds at times.

Latest CAMs and deterministic models are bringing the cold front
somewhat faster through the area this afternoon, exiting to the
southeast by early this evening. There is still good synoptic
upward vertical motion with this and the 500 mb shortwave trough
shifting through the region.

Dew points are one caveat, as mentioned previously should be in
the 30s this afternoon, which should lead to any shower or
thunderstorm be rather high-based. Still expecting scattered
areal coverage of showers and some storms by middle afternoon
into early evening.

Dry air below these bases on forecast soundings suggest gusty
winds may occur with stronger storms, and small hail with up to
500 J/kg of elevated CAPE in a rather strongly-sheared
environment. Best potential for these would be in southeast
parts of the area, where the cold front will exit by early
evening and have a little more instability to work with.

Once showers and storms exit the area, a secondary backdoor cold
front will sweep southwestward across the area by early to middle
evening. This will bring the strong cold air advection and gusty
north to northeast winds into the area, and should help scour
out the clouds. Lake effect clouds should develop and may linger
for lakeshore areas tonight into Wednesday morning.

Colder lows in the upper 20s to around 30 north and lower to
middle 30s south are forecast for later tonight. Will let day
shift have another look at this forecast and determine if any
freeze headlines will be needed for later tonight.

High pressure working southeast into the region will bring dry
and cool conditions for Wednesday, with weakening winds.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

High pressure should slowly shift east of the region Wednesday
night into Thursday, with dry conditions lingering as winds
shift to the southeast.

Ensembles suggest an active weather pattern for Friday into the
upcoming weekend, with one low pressure system tracking
northeast from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday
into Saturday. Another low on its heels then may shift along a
similar path for Sunday into Monday. There is more uncertainty
with the details with the second low track.

Overall, it looks like rounds of showers and thunderstorms
should occur for at least portions of Friday into the weekend.
It is still too early to determine if strong to severe storms
may occur, but will be something to watch. In addition, most
ensemble members have solid rainfall occurring, so another thing
to watch. Warm temperatures and perhaps some more humid air may
move into the area by Saturday and linger longer. Gusty winds
may occur at times, as each low pressure system moves through.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Low level wind shear conditions may linger until around 12Z
Tuesday across area terminals, until southwest winds around
2000 feet AGL start to weaken somewhat. Gusty southwest winds
are expected again this morning, becoming west this afternoon.

Middle to high clouds should linger at times today, with some
breaks. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms should develop
by middle afternoon and linger into early evening, as a cold
front moves through. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
any storms. Ceilings should remain above 5000 feet AGL with this
activity, with locally reduced visibility in any storms.

Winds shift northwest behind the cold front, then north behind
a backdoor cold front shifting southwest across the area by
early to middle evening. Gusty north winds are then expected
into the overnight hours, before weakening gradually on
Wednesday. Lake effect clouds with ceilings down to 2500 feet
AGL or so may affect Milwaukee and Kenosha tonight into
Wednesday morning.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Gusty southwest winds will persist today, as low pressure
around 29.5 inches moves from Lake Superior to Lake Huron. The
low will bring a cold front southeast through the region today
into this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms are forecast
with the frontal passage.

Expect gusty west winds to turn north later this afternoon into
this evening, from north to south across Lake Michigan. A
period of north gales are expected tonight behind the cold
front across the open waters, and a Gale Warning has been
issued. Building waves are expected as well tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory continues for the nearshore waters today
into Wednesday, for gusty winds through the period and building
waves tonight into Wednesday morning. A few north gales may
occur tonight.

Winds and waves will gradually lighten up Wednesday into
Thursday, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves southeast
across the region.

South winds will then increase again Friday and remain gusty
into the upcoming weekend, as multiple low pressure systems move
northeast through the region. Some periods of gale force gusts
may occur over the open waters, with winds and waves possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory levels in the nearshore waters.

Wood

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Gusty southwest winds with fairly deep mixing to 6000 to 7000
feet AGL should continue this afternoon. Dew points should drop
to or remain in the 30s this afternoon, which should bring low
to very low relative humidity values of 25 to 35 percent over
the area. Given the scattered shower and storm activity by
middle afternoon, will not issue a Special Weather Statement
for elevated fire weather conditions. Still, any burning should
be done with caution with the gusty winds and low relative
humidity values.

May see very low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent on
Wednesday afternoon, though winds will be light. Vales in the 25
to 35 percent range may linger on Thursday afternoon, before a
wet period arrives for Friday into the upcoming weekend.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...7 PM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 PM Tuesday
     to 7 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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