Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
312 FXUS62 KMLB 290711 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 311 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Current...Low-level flow begins to veer ESE/SE as speeds slowly diminish as the pgrad relaxes a bit. Onshore flow becoming light early this morning over the interior with speeds still 10-15 mph along the coast. KMLB 88D mostly quiet, but could see some very ISOLD sprinkles or showers over the local coastal waters ahead of sunrise. Eventual morning mins mainly in the L-M60s, but could see some U60s/around 70F along the Space/Treasure coasts. Still not ruling out a few normally cooler sites over the interior realizing U50s for lows. Fewer high clouds streaming overhead this morning with some occasional stratocu moving onto the east coast. Today-Tonight...Shortwave ridging aloft weakens and pushes off and away from the southeast U.S./FL coasts as weak shortwave troughing pushes into the Deep South, with SWRLY flow aloft resulting. Surface high pressure off of the Carolinas will continue to weaken slowly as it pushes further seaward. This will allow for surface flow to veer ESE/SE over the next 24 hours. As the pgrad relaxes, winds will be lower than previous days, but still 10-15 mph over the interior and 15-20 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts - all with some higher gusts. Moisture values remain low but still cannot rule out some very ISOLD sprinkles/showers across the coastal waters with activity occasionally reaching coastal locales. PoPs still remain below 20pct areawide, with most locations remaining dry. A bit more coverage may develop later tonight across the local waters, especially Gulf Stream and south of the Cape. A slight chance will exist for shower activity along the coast Cape southward. Afternoon highs in the U70s to L80s along/near the coast, with L- M80s inland. Overnight temps remain mild and mainly in the 60s areawide. Tuesday-Wednesday...A brief break in the stagnant pattern of the week will arrive on Tuesday as a weak upper trough drifts across the eastern portion of the CONUS. Little change at the surface with the position of the center of the high well offshore from the Carolinas, but this mid/upper feature will bring a bit more moisture to the area, and the best chance for rain this week. Hopes shouldn`t rise too far, though, as coverage looks to be isolated at best, but the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee may win out on Tuesday, with a 30% chance of rain. A bit more instability will accompany the added moisture, so have continued the mention of thunder, with highest confidence over the Gulf Stream. Wednesday`s pattern will be similar, with onshore moving showers and storms that could be enhanced a tad by the east coast sea breeze. While the potential rain is a welcomed sight for some areas, accumulations will be low and not enough to make a dent in the dryness of April. Mid week temperatures will hover near to slightly above normal, reaching the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon (slightly cooler at the coast) and the mid 60s overnight. Thursday-Monday...Thursday and beyond returns to the regularly scheduled programming to begin May as the upper ridge regains control of the area. The center of the surface high does drift a bit poleward this weekend, but offers very little change to the ongoing pattern. A slight chance of onshore moving showers each day with the Treasure Coast again being the most favored for any activity. Ample sunshine will keep highs above normal, reaching 90 degrees across the interior beginning Thursday, low 80s at the coast. Lows in the mid 60s continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Continued mainly VFR conds prevail. With western Atlc high pressure weakening and pushing seaward, our surface winds will begin to veer ESE/SE over the next 24 hours. The gradient relaxes a bit today with speeds approaching 10-15 kts over the interior and around 15 kts along the coast with higher gusts expected. Wind speeds will become light this evening. A few coastal sprinkles/showers remain possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Today-Tonight...We may start off the day with Cautionary Statements over the Gulf Stream (south of the Volusia-Brevard County line) for seas building to 5-6 ft, then seas subside areawide to 4-5 ft by late morning/afternoon and continuing 3-5 ft tonight. With high pressure weakening and pushing seaward, the directional component will veer ESE/SE with speeds 11-17 kts areawide. A few sprinkles/showers possible during the day with coverage possibly increasing later tonight to SCT - esp Gulf Stream and south of the Cape. Tuesday-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions return mid week as east to southeast winds fall below 15 knots and seas return to 2-4 feet. A slight chance of marine showers Tuesday and Wednesday, with a small threat for lightning especially over the Gulf Stream waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Today...The pressure gradient relaxes a bit as winds veer ESE/SE increasing to 10-15 mph with some higher gusts thru the day. ISOLD sprinkles/showers still possible - esp along the coast, but most locations will remain dry. Could see min aftn RHs fall to 35-40pct well into the interior, with 45-55pct more likely closer towards the coast. Fire sensitive conditions continue overall with the mainly dry conditions and winds. This Week...Fire sensitive conditions continue this week with drying fuels and very little rainfall accumulation expected. A 20-30% chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday with a small threat for isolated thunderstorms. Warming temperatures will lead to lowering humidity values, which will fall below 40% each afternoon across the interior. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 65 83 66 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 85 65 86 67 / 10 0 20 10 MLB 81 67 82 68 / 20 10 20 10 VRB 83 65 83 66 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 85 66 87 68 / 10 0 20 10 SFB 85 65 87 67 / 10 0 20 10 ORL 85 66 87 68 / 10 0 20 10 FPR 82 64 83 65 / 20 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM...Schaper AVIATION...Sedlock