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000
FXUS62 KMLB 241314
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
914 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Surface analysis shows a ridge axis across north Florida, extending
from the western Atlantic. This continues to promote a dry airmass
as indicated by the 10Z XMR sounding (PWAT, 0.49"). Mostly sunny
skies are forecast with no mention of precip in the forecast today.
A sea breeze will keep coastal temperatures in the upper 70s, while
areas along and west of I-95 warm into the low to mid 80s. The
current forecast remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 914 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR prevails. Light and variable winds observed early this morning
are forecast to develop an east component into the afternoon. An
east coast sea breeze will progress inland, increasing winds to
around 7-11 kts. Winds diminish after sunset, becoming light and
variable again tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure will remain in place
across the southeastern US, slowly drifting eastward towards the
Atlantic today, keeping conditions dry and skies mostly clear
through tonight. Light and variable winds this morning will
increase out of the east as the east coast sea breeze develops and
moves inland. As a result, afternoon temperatures are forecast to
only reach the upper 70s along the coast and highs west of I-95
in the low to mid 80s. Humidity is forecast to remain low. Winds
are forecast to become light and variable once again tonight, with
overnight lows falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Friday...Surface high pressure stays in place as 500mb
ridging begins to build over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.
Dry weather is forecast to continue with a dry atmosphere in
place over Florida. The east coast sea breeze is expected to
develop each afternoon and move inland, producing gusty winds 15
to 20 mph, especially closer to the coast. Temperatures each
afternoon will reach seasonal normals, rising into the mid to
upper 80s well inland. Morning lows start in the upper 50s to low
60s Friday morning, warming a bit by Saturday morning into the 60s
across the board.

Saturday-Tuesday...A ridging pattern will become well established
this weekend across the eastern U.S. and Florida Peninsula. Highs
each day remain near normal, in the low 80s (coast) to the mid 80s
(inland), with mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky conditions. Medium
range guidance is hinting at the potential for some marine shower
activity on and off through the weekend, but mentionable PoPs were
kept offshore for now. Breezy onshore winds are forecast for the
weekend, gusting 20 to 25 mph, perhaps up to 30 mph at the immediate
coast. Next week, surface high pressure remains in control as
daytime highs start to climb into the mid/upper 80s inland. Again,
while models indicate a potential for a few showers brushing the
coast, confidence remains too low at this time to include in the
official forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today-Tonight...High pressure will continue to dominate across
the local Atlantic waters, with dry conditions expected today
through tonight. East-southeast winds 5 to 10 knots will prevail,
increasing slightly to 10 to 15 knots across the nearshore waters
this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Tonight,
winds will become light and variable across the local waters. Seas
are forecast to remain between 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions persist through
Friday before onshore winds increase 15-20 kt Saturday and Sunday,
creating poor boating conditions. Gusts over the waters could reach
25 kt this weekend. Seas respond by climbing to 5-6 ft, mainly over
the Gulf Stream.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today...Dry conditions will persist across east central Florida
today, with minimum RH values in the 30 to 45 percent range across
the area. Winds are forecast to remain light out of the east-
southeast this morning, but will pick up to 10 to 15 mph out of
the east as the sea breeze moves inland.

Thursday-Friday...Relative humidity values fall to around 30 to 35
percent inland again on Thursday, recovering a bit into the upper
30s to mid 40s on Friday. Easterly winds remain light, at or
below 10 mph Thursday, increasing to 10-15 mph on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  78  62  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  79  60  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  83  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  79  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Law