Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 211030
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
530 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Weak shortwave ridging embedded within a zonal flow pattern aloft
prevails across our region early this morning while weak surface
ridging also continues to stretch along the northern Gulf Coast.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue with this pattern.
Temperatures are starting off slightly warmer than the past couple
of mornings, with surface observations showing temperatures
generally ranging in the 40s over most locations as of 4 AM CDT.

The weak shortwave ridging pattern will move to the east of our
region later today, with flow aloft transitioning more southwesterly
later this afternoon and through tonight in advance of an upper
level trough that will be translating over the vicinity of N Texas
and S Oklahoma. Atmospheric moisture should slowly improve across
our forecast area late this afternoon and into this evening,
especially over southern portions of southeast MS, southwest AL and
the western FL panhandle where precipitable water values are
forecast to increase to around 1.2-1.3 inches by this evening. A
surface area of low pressure should take shape out over the
northwestern Gulf this evening into late tonight with a warm front
stretching east from this feature out across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. The forcing for ascent currently looks to be greatest out
over the Gulf this evening into late tonight as a shortwave trough
translates across the Gulf along this boundary. However, the gradual
deep layer moistening in combination with sufficient weak ascent
within southwest flow aloft will support a chance of rain showers
across our forecast area this evening into late tonight, and will
have POPs ranging up to between 30-40% over much of the region.
Rainfall amounts through tonight should be very sporadic and light
in nature, with the best potential for light QPF currently looking
to be near the coast. Highs today should warm into the lower to mid
70s over inland areas, with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s
along the immediate coast and beaches. Lows tonight should continue
to trend a little warmer between 50-55 over inland locations and in
the upper 50s to near 60 degrees along the immediate coast/beaches.

The upper level trough/low centered near the vicinity of the
ArkLaTex region early Friday morning should slowly progress eastward
across the Mississippi Valley region by Friday afternoon. The
surface low pressure system should meanwhile move eastward along the
north central Gulf Coast region through the day Friday, likely in
the vicinity of southeast MS or southwest AL by early Friday
evening. This feature should gradually move east of our CWA toward
northern Florida/southern Georgia late Friday night. The mid/upper
level flow pattern becomes increasingly diffluent across our region
ahead of the upper trough during the day Friday, with ascent
favorable for the development of numerous to widespread rain showers
with elevated instability also sufficient for isolated to scattered
embedded thunderstorms ahead of the approaching upper trough and
surface low. The surface theta-e boundary/warm front may lift to
near the immediate coast, but may stay just offshore during the day
Friday. Forecast soundings along the immediate coast would suggest
that elevated instability and shear profiles may be supportive of a
storm or two near the immediate coast potentially capable of
producing marginally severe hail or gusty winds Friday but severe
potential will probably remain confined south of the coast.
Scattered to numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms will
linger into the evening hours with rain chances slowly decreasing
into late Friday night as the upper trough pivots across Alabama.
Highs Friday trend slightly cooler in the mid 60s to near 70
degrees. Lows Friday night range between 50-55 over most locations
except for readings in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees along the
immediate coast and beaches.

For beach interests: A LOW rip current risk continues today and
tonight. However, we do expect the rip current risk to trend
MODERATE by Friday, then HIGH late Friday into Saturday as
onshore flow strengthens and swell sets increase in association
with the passing low pressure system. Surf still looks to build
to 3-4 feet along area beaches Friday night into Saturday. /21

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Another brief break from the rain will arrive this weekend as
upper level ridging builds in the wake of our late week system and
in advance of our next system set to arrive Tuesday. The surface
"cool" front will push offshore temporarily Saturday into Sunday
as the ridge aloft builds over Texas. This will bring drier air
into the area keeping us dry through Monday. Our next system will
quickly approach Monday night through Tuesday as a potent trough
ejects across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. Deep
southwesterly flow will allow for moisture to surge northward
ahead of this system; however, the rather short time between the
end week system and this one may limit the quality of moisture
available. Then again the Gulf of Mexico is right there so it is
almost always a good bet that moisture will be available. Rain
will push through Tuesday before the surface cold front moves in
and sweeps out Wednesday. We may need to monitor this system for a
round of strong to severe storms; however, the best jet dynamics
are lifting out by Tuesday morning and seem to be out of phase for
our area. This type of pattern usually results in a glancing blow
type event where mainly our northern areas see the heaviest rain
and strongest storms or it passes just north of our area. This
glancing blow of better dynamics and questions about the quality
of instability would likely limit any severe potential but there`s
enough overlap and potential to warrant a mention and watch
trends. Rip currents will be an issue though as strong southerly
winds develop out ahead of this system likely leading to life
threatening beach conditions Monday and Tuesday. The pattern
appears to remain active with yet another system potentially
loading up for early next weekend but thats still way to far out.
BB/03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Light winds will persist through early this morning. A light to
moderate easterly to southeasterly flow will develop this
afternoon through tonight. Onshore flow will increase on Friday
ahead of an area of low pressure moving along the coast. A few
strong to severe marine storms will be possible on Friday. A
strong offshore flow returns Friday night into Saturday behind
the passing low pressure system. A strong southeasterly flow is
forecast to develop again late Sunday into Monday. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  55  70  55  72  46  72  56 /  10  40  80  40   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  58  69  58  71  49  71  58 /  10  40  70  40  10   0   0   0
Destin      72  58  69  59  72  51  71  57 /   0  40  70  50  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   75  52  69  53  70  42  74  48 /   0  30  80  70  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  75  52  66  52  69  41  73  53 /  10  30  80  50   0   0   0   0
Camden      75  52  67  53  68  41  72  50 /   0  30  80  70  10   0   0   0
Crestview   75  53  70  55  71  45  74  48 /   0  40  80  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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