000
FXUS63 KMPX 191956
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze Warning in effect for Central and Southern MN, and western
WI from midnight tonight to 7 AM Saturday morning.

- Chance for isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon. No
accumulation expected.

- Quiet weather through the weekend, with a couple of systems to
  move across the area at the start and end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An area of low pressure remains centered over Ontario this afternoon
which is forecasted to slowly prog eastward tonight into tomorrow
thus leaving MN and WI on the western periphery of the current
troughing pattern. Strong WNW flow and CAA will continue to persist
through the rest of today before h850 thermal ridging tries to force
warmer air back into the northern plains late this weekend.

Tonight and tomorrow... The forecast for this evening features
possible isolated to scattered snow showers thanks to
differential heating between combined with weak omega. Areas
north of east of the I-94 corridor have the best chances of
seeing p-types favoring snow versus farther south being
rain/snow showery mix and even some graupel. On the contrary,
surface dry air as seen on forecast soundings will challenge
how much precipitation reaches the ground versus falling as
virga. Therefore, maintained limited PoPs to 30 percents this
evening. For any snow that does reach the ground, grassy
surfaces could see up to a trace to a tenth of an inch by
sunrise. Prevailing stratus will begin to erode overnight thus
removing our layer of insolation consequentially allowing
overnight lows to reach the mid to upper 20s across much of the
area. With vegetation greening up and temperatures subfreezing,
Freeze Warning headlines are in effect for both central and
southern MN and western WI from midnight to 7 AM Saturday
morning.

Sunday... Late this weekend features high pressure, warmer
temepratures and drier conditions. Winds will decrease as the
Ontario low moves farther east. By Sunday, southerly flow will
assist temepratures to reach near 60 degrees although min RH
values in the low 20 percents across Western MN will elevate
fire weather conditions. I am not expecting red flag conditions
given the lack of strong wind gusts in the forecast Sunday
afternoon.

Monday through through next Friday.
By Monday of next week, a developing low will track over
Saskatchewan and reach the northern plains by Monday night.
Precip with this event is growing increasingly likely through
Monday as the trough deepens over Lake Michigan Monday night
into Tuesday. Given the track of this low pressure, much of MN
and WI will remain on the warm side keeping us in the rain
regime whereas snow chances remain pinned to the North Shore
where CAA will be strongest. Tuesday`s highs will be slightly
cooler in the 50s before a rebound back into the 60s for the
rest of the period. By the end of next week, we will have to
keep our eye on a Colorado Low that looks to develop and
potentially become our next rain maker. Still lots of
uncertainties to hash out specifics currently.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low BKN/OVC VFR with a chance of MVFR cigs and vsby this
afternoon. Scattered convective showers continue to make their way
across Minnesota earlier this morning and will continue into this
afternoon. Only minor adjustments have been made on TEMPO grouping
to reflect -SHSN as forecast soundings still looks to hang onto all
sites seen some form of either graupel or rain before dissipating
this evening. WNW Winds will remain blustery with except for a few
hours tonight before returning once again tomorrow.

KMSP...Scattered convective snow showers looking most likely over
KMSP between 22z and 02z this evening. No snow accumulation is
expected. Winds will remain west northwesterly and breezy this
afternoon before decreasing slightly after 19z tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts.
TUE...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 10-15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le
     Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dunleavy