Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
723 FNUS73 KMPX 031355 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Prairie Island WUI Mitigation Rx Burns 2024...Bureau of Indian Affaris National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 855 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on May 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Prairie Island Burns, mostly sunny skies are expected with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. RH values will be in the mid to upper 30s, but could fall into the lower 30s if temperatures warm a bit more than anticipated. Winds will be southwesterly with gusts up to 20kts. Cloud coverage will increase during the late afternoon and early evening hours ahead of an approaching cold front. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 69. RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 12 mph at ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 10 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /70900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /91800 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 20 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID Sky cover.......CLR MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............66 67 68 69 69 68 66 63 60 58 56 55 RH..............45 43 42 40 40 43 50 58 62 64 69 69 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S SE SE E 20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 12 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust.18 18 18 18 17 13 12 9 9 9 9 9 Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.1 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.18 20 17 18 17 13 12 8 10 10 10 10 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of rain showers after 3 am. Chance of rain showers after 3 am. Temperature.........Min 47. RH..................Max 89 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast around 6 mph late in the evening, then shifting to the east overnight shifting to the north after 3 am shifting to the northeast shifting to the north early in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26900 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph shifting to the southeast around 9 mph overnight, then shifting to the north around 7 mph after 3 am. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Temperature.........Max 61. RH..................Min 51 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (65000 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Martin Cassellius Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413086.0/MPX .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL martin.cassellius@bia.gov