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000
FNUS73 KMPX 211901
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Watonwan WPA RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
201 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on April 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Watonwan WPA RX, expect sunny skies to continue this
afternoon with temperatures hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s
before dropping back to the mid to upper 30s tonight. Winds at
ignition will be 10-15mph out of the west, with RH in the low 20s
percent. Winds will begin to fall back this evening but only fall
below sustained at 10mph by the late night to early morning
tomorrow.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................23 percent at ignition...Min 20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 14 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /105800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /107100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  61  61  62  60  56  51  48  46  44  42  42
RH..............23  22  22  20  23  27  33  39  45  51  57  57
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  14  12  10  7   7   8   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.18  20  18  16  14  10  10  10  14  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...6.2 6.3 6.2 6.3 3.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  17  14  8   9   12  14  15  14  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 39.
RH..................Max 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 8 to 12 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (94500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph shifting to the south 14 to 18
                    mph overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon, then
                    slight chance of rain showers late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. South winds 14 to 23 mph with gusts to
                    around 35 mph shifting to the southwest 18 to
                    25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (88500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (125700
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 24 mph increasing to southwest 29
                    to 36 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hasenstein
Requested by...Ryan Wiliams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411620.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan_williams@fws.gov