Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
017 FXUS65 KMSO 070746 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 146 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 .DISCUSSION...Windy conditions remain over the region today, with gusts 40 to 50 mph along I-90 east of Missoula possible. Winds across Flathead Lake will be elevated as well gusting 30 to 40 mph throughout the day, if your plans take you out on the lake exercise caution. Showers will be possible throughout the day in the mountains but remain isolated in the valleys until after 6pm MDT this evening. Precipitation amounts remain unchanged as most valleys have a greater than 50% chance of receiving at least 0.25", the exceptions being the Camas Prairie and Hells Canyon, ID, along with valleys west of the Flathead in MT. Snow levels are still on track to lower to around 4000 feet. Forecast models show a 50 to 60 percent chance of 6" of snow or more for locations such as Marias Pass, Georgetown Lake, MacDonald Pass and Homestake Pass. Even the high valleys of southwest Montana (Butte, Anaconda, Philipsburg) will see snowfall, with a 70 to 80 percent chance of seeing 2" of snow by mid day Wednesday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Glacier National Park and Butte/Blackfoot regions to account for snow travel and slick roads. After this system a return of high pressure is expected. Temperatures are forecast to warm up nicely, by Mothers Day, upper 70s in W. MT and 80s for north-central ID. Only 22% of the models have the ridge breaking down by Mothers Day, but increase to 35% by Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...A cool, wet, and windy weather pattern will remain in place across the Northern Rockies through the next 36 hours. This will keep periodic showers and lower ceilings in place across the area and at most airfields beginning after 08/00z. Conditions will gradually deteriorate tonight as a secondary shortwave trough rotates through the region. The snow level will lower to around 4000 feet by Tuesday night with accumulations, along with reduced visibility and significantly lowered ceiling heights, expected at KBTM. Breezy winds are also likely throughout the Northern Rockies with gusts to 30 knots possible during the afternoon at KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 11 AM MDT Wednesday for West Glacier Region. Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Flathead/Mission Valleys. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Butte/Blackfoot Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 11 AM MDT Wednesday for Butte/Blackfoot Region. ID...None. && $$