912
FXUS61 KOKX 162150
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
550 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue moving south and east of Long
Island tonight. High pressure will build in from Northern New
England late tonight through Friday night. High pressure
generally remains in control through the middle of next week,
with weak low pressure passing to the south this weekend. A cold
front could move through the area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure spins well south of Long Island as it starts to
slowly depart to the southeast this evening. Light rain and
drizzle continues to diminish in coverage. The forecast is on
track.

The upper low and energy will begin to shift further south
tonight. The two systems will become vertically- stacked, which
will help bring an even quicker diminishing trend to the light
rain/drizzle. The activity should come to an end by 06z with dry
conditions returning for the rest of the night. Low clouds will
likely persist through day break, but could see some
improvement from NE to SW as surface high pressure over
Southeast Canada builds southward over New England. This surface
ridging should also help lessen the lower level moisture and
aid in the end of any drizzle. Lows tonight will be slightly
above normal in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low and associated trough continue moving further
offshore Friday morning. A ridge briefly builds aloft, with its
axis shifting towards the New England coast in the afternoon
and evening. A shortwave within a broader upper level trough
over western North America will swing across the Great Lakes in
the afternoon and evening. The shortwave should swing across New
England Friday night.

Surface high pressure over the area will result in dry conditions
on Friday. Drier air should allow for at least partly sunny
skies. While there may be some brief clearing across the area,
the approaching shortwave should be enough to bring in middle
and upper level cloud cover late in the day. Highs on Friday
will be much warmer than the past few days with temperatures in
the lower 70s. A NE flow will gradually shift towards the E,
potentially SE near the coast. This should temper highs a bit
along the immediate coast, but given some sunshine temperatures
should be able to reach 70 degrees before any onshore flow
develops.

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected Friday night. Model
consensus is indicating some slight probabilities for showers
across far western portions of Orange County late Friday night
into Saturday morning. This is due to the approaching shortwave.
However, the trend in the guidance over the last few days is to
weaken any precip that may approach due to encountering the
subsidence from the lingering surface high. The high res NAM
shows this well with the bulk of any simulated reflectivity
drying up as it nears the region. Feel the 20 PoP is warranted
over western Orange given the very low chance for measurable
rain. Lows will be in the 50s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure nosing down from the northeast will generally
remain in control through the middle of next week. Low pressure
that previously brought rain to the area will continue to spin
in place well offshore to the southeast, with another area of
weak low pressure passing well south this weekend. Aloft, after
a shortwave moves through on Saturday, heights generally rise
aloft with ridging remaining over the northeast through the
middle of next week. An upper level cutoff low looks to remain
well south of the area through this time as well. Towards the
end of next week a surface low will pass well to the north with
associated upper level trough and cold front moving through the
area.

In terms of weather, a pretty quiet stretch is expected. There is a
slight chance of some showers on Saturday, mainly for far western
locations, as the aforementioned weak low approaches and passes to
the south. Thereafter through Thursday, there will be plenty of sun
with a warming trend. Highs Monday through Thursday will be in the
mid to upper 70s for most. The next chance of rain will likely be
with the passing cold front sometime Wednesday night into Thursday.
Depending on exactly when the front moves through, there is the
potential for thunderstorms, mainly for western portions of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure south of Long Island will slowly track south and
weaken through tonight. Meanwhile high pressure builds in from
the north.

Mainly light rain and/or drizzle will gradually dissipate in
coverage this afternoon. KSWF will be mainly dry, but could see
spotty light rain/drizzle. Looking for a persistence forecast
the next 12 hours with ceilings mainly MVFR for NYC and the
Lower Hudson Valley, and IFR/MVFR for the eastern terminals.
Expecting improvement to VFR in NYC around 09z, however, can not
rule out conditions not improving til after sunrise Friday
morning.

N-NE with gusts to around 25-30kt along the coast and 20-25kt
elsewhere, will slowly diminish this afternoon and evening.
Most of the gusts come to an end around 00z. Winds speeds are
then expected to remain around 10kt or less.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of VFR conditions may occur later than forecast,
possible after 12z Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue on the waters into this evening. Winds
on the LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor should weaken below 25
kt this evening. With winds still remaining up along the coast,
have extended the SCA for these waters through 10 pm. On the
ocean, 25-30 kt gusts will continue this evening, but begin
diminishing overnight as low pressure moves well offshore. Ocean
seas will remain elevated tonight through Friday night. Seas
west of Fire Island Inlet should subside below 5 ft by Friday
evening, but linger near 5 ft further east. Have extended the
SCA east of Fire Island Inlet through Friday night.

Thereafter, with a weak pressure gradient in place over the area,
winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through the end of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT