931
FXUS64 KOUN 061833
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
133 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

**SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT**

SUMMARY - All the ingredients still appear to be coming together for
a significant severe event as a potent shortwave trough ejects into
the plains later this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, moisture
advection is underway with low stratus seen across much of the
forecast area. Moisture advection will continue through the day,
contributing to strong instability by peak daytime heating. Wind
fields will also be strong, with large, curved hodographs seen in
model soundings across much of the area, especially towards and
after 00z as the low level jet ramps up.

With high confidence that the necessary ingredients will be there,
the biggest question mark remaining is storm coverage and how far
south storms will develop as the greatest forcing from the trough
passes largely to our north, i.e. will we see widespread
thunderstorm development or just a couple scattered (likely intense)
storms. For now, it appears storm coverage will be greatest closer
to the Kansas border, tapering to isolated near and south of I-40.
Storm mode is a secondary uncertainty, with several of the CAMs
suggesting a faster transition to a more linear mode across northern
Oklahoma, which could decrease the hail threat but increase the wind
threat (lower probability scenario for now). Tornadoes will be
possible with either storm mode.

SEVERE HAZARDS - The overall environment will support large to giant
hail (>3" in diameter) and significant, long-track tornadoes with
any discrete supercell that develops. Damaging wind gusts will also
be a concern, especially if we see high-precipitation supercells
and/or a transition to more linear modes later on. The environment
will remain supportive of severe weather, including tornadoes, well
after dark. In fact, the tornado environment will only become more
favorable after dark as low-level wind shear maximizes and influx of
a moist and unstable airmass continues. Additionally, thunderstorms
will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could lead to localized
flooding, especially in areas that have seen excessive rainfall
recently.

STORM MOTION - Storm motion will generally be northeast or east-
northeast at 40-50 mph, with right-moving supercells moving east or
east-northeast at 30-35 mph.

TIMING - Convective development is expected first across northwest
and/or western OK by 2-4 PM as the initial forcing with the
shortwave impinges on the dryline. These storms will continue
east- northeastward into north-central OK by early evening (6pm to
midnight). There is a lower risk for more isolated thunderstorms
developing out ahead of the main line in northern/central OK
between 4-8 PM. The threat could linger past midnight across
eastern/southeastern parts of the area, but uncertainty is greater
here on if we will see storms develop this far south and east.

Bottom line: Not everyone will see a storm today, but any storm that
develops will be capable of significant severe weather and should be
taken seriously this afternoon through late this evening!

Day/Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Fair weather is expected Tuesday with sunny skies and highs in the
80s.

Another upper short wave will pass by on Wednesday, bringing the
next chance of showers and storms to southeast portions of the
forecast area. An early cold front will be draped southeast of the I-
44 corridor by noon, keeping moisture (and, thus, storm chances)
confined to areas southeast of the front. Instability and shear will
support severe weather with these storms, with large hail and
damaging wind gusts the main threat.

After Wednesday, precipitation chances drop off with only low PoPs
scattered here and there (peaking around 30% this weekend). For now,
nothing stands out to indicate any severe risk after Wednesday.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Significant-severe thunderstorms are expected to affect the
majority of the terminals this afternoon and evening, including
Will Rogers World Airport. All hazards will be possible,
including: strong tornadoes, very large hail greater than two
inches in diameter surface-to-aloft, and variable wind gusts of
65 kt or greater for KOKC, KOUN, and terminals into western and
northern Oklahoma. TEMPO groups were assigned to reflect the best
timing of significant gusts (>=65 kt) associated with the severe
thunderstorms. Extreme turbulence can be expected with convection
this afternoon and tonight with cumulonimbi tops near 50 kft. The
potential for thunderstorms will diminish from west-to-east later
tonight, with most terminals returning to VFR and breezy winds
following the passage of a Pacific cold front. Until then, CIGs
will vary from IFR to MVFR with strong, southerly winds ahead of
the incoming severe storm potential this afternoon and tonight.

Sincavage/WFO Lubbock

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  81  63  80 /  70   0   0  10
Hobart OK         52  83  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  83  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           51  85  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     52  81  56  79 / 100   0   0   0
Durant OK         69  85  65  88 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>026-028>032-042-043.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09