Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
FGUS71 KPHI 151633
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-160445-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1133 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 4

This is the forth in a series of annual Flood Potential
Statements that provides an assessment of how ready or primed our
forecast area is for river flooding.

This outlook covers the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill,
Passaic and Raritan River basins.

It will provide information on flood threat contributors such as
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water
equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future precipitation
and others.

This assessment is valid between February 15-29, 2024.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook does not discuss flash flooding, nor does it discuss
any extent or severity of flooding.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is retreating back to normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None. There is currently no river flooding
occurring within our service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Below normal to normal. Between 2.0 and
3.5 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days
across the entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found
at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - There is snow cover north of the Pennsylvania
Turnpike and I-195 in New Jersey. Snow water equivalents (SWE)
are running between 0.50 inch and 1.50 inches. Depth and basin-
average water equivalent estimates can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - We have no reports of river ice across our area of
responsibility at this time.

STREAMFLOW - Normal to slightly above normal. Real time water
data is available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS)
by visiting https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Above normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts
(Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s Climate
Prediction Center can be found at the following websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region vary and are running below normal
to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are mainly running normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - High pressure will be over the region
for the remainder of today. A clipper system affects the region
tonight. After a brief period of high pressure Friday, another low
pressure system will impact the region with mainly some light snow
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure returns to the region
Sunday, lingering into the middle of next week.The 8 to 14 day
outlook calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall river flood potential is about normal across the
forecast area.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

&&

Overall Flood Potential...Normal
Current Flooding...None
Recent Precipitation...Below normal to normal
Snow cover...Normal south, slightly above normal north
River Ice...Below normal north, normal south
Streamflow...Normal to slightly above normal
Soil Moisture...Above normal
Ground Water...Below normal to above normal
Reservoir Conditions...Normal

$$

Kruzdlo


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.