Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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715 FXUS65 KPSR 301744 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1044 AM MST Tue Apr 30 2024 .Update...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion && .SYNOPSIS... Warm, slightly above normal temperatures (3-5 degrees), and dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the week. An upper level trough will pass through the Intermountain West mid-week resulting in breezy conditions across the region. For this weekend temperatures are expected to remain above normal with slightly cooler temperatures (about normal) forecast for Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Mid-level heights will continue to rise today, ushering in a period of warmer than average high temperatures. Expect high temps to reach the low to mid 90s in the lower deserts and mid to upper 80s for higher elevations. A shortwave trough will swing through the Intermountain West mid-week while the core remains removed to the north from our area. However, we will see a tightening gradient as a result of this shortwave with an associated weak frontal boundary pushing into the region going into early Thursday. An increase in breezy conditions is expected Thursday with gusts upwards of 15-20 mph possible across much of the area. Temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will see some slight cooling while remaining near to slightly above normal. Lower desert highs during this time will top out in the low 90s. For this weekend, cluster analysis continues to show high uncertainty for the potential of a cut-off low to dip into the region. Depending on how the pattern evolves this weekend will determine how much cooling and any precipitation potential that may impact the region. For now deterministic models are showing that the high temps for Monday will dip into the upper 80`s in the lower deserts. Most ensembles and deterministic models favor dry conditions heading into next week. Windier conditions are also possible heading into the weekend with speeds reaching 15-20 mph sustained, gusting up to 25-30mph on Sunday. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will be light and follow their typical diurnal tendencies. Wind speeds this afternoon may reach up around 10 kt in the PHX Metro and around 15 kt at KBLH. A light southerly crosswind (160v200) at KPHX and KDVT will become southwesterly between 20-21Z. This southerly crosswind is expected at KPHX and KDVT again tomorrow. Clear skies are expected through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions will persist this week and into this weekend with high temperatures around 3-5 degrees above normal each day. Winds will be light and follow typical upslope/downvalley patterns Tuesday and Wednesday before increased breeziness arrives Thursday with gusts reaching the 15-20 mph range across much of the area. Windy conditions will also be possible across the western districts on Thursday as a dry cold front passes through the Colorado River Valley. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 8-15% each day. Moisture recovery will range from poor to fair each night, or around 25-50%. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...95