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000
FXUS65 KREV 161942
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1242 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and warm spring weather continues with afternoon temperatures
rising into the 60s for Sierra communities and 70s for lower
valleys this week, except areas near the Oregon border will see a
brief cooling with north breezes Wednesday. Some valleys could see
highs push above 80 degrees this weekend. A slight cooling trend
with shower chances may return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key points:

* Warm spring temperatures starting today will continue through
  the upcoming week. Only exception is a few degrees of cooling
  with north breezes for areas near the OR border Wednesday.

* Dry pattern prevails through early next week, with only a slim
  (less than 10%) chance for a few stray afternoon showers Friday-
  Saturday.

Other than areas of mid-high level clouds streaming in from the
northwest today, we`ll see the next notable jump in temperatures
with highs pushing into the 70-75 degree range, with lower 60s for
Sierra communities and areas near the OR border. This warming
trend will take a brief pause Wednesday in response to a trough
moving across the northern Rockies, as the fringe effects shift
surface winds to a more northerly direction. For higher elevation
ridges, west-northwest wind gusts could reach 50 mph tonight into
Wednesday morning. From Thursday through the weekend, the ridge
of high pressure currently off the west coast will slowly edge
inland, eventually pushing eastward across the Great Basin this
weekend. This will lead to gradual warming each day with highs
peaking on Sunday--lower 80s becoming more likely for warmer
western NV valleys, and some Sierra communities coming close to 70
degrees. This warmup will accelerate the melting of the Sierra
snowpack and produce faster cold flows on area rivers and streams.
Use caution and wear gear that provides protection from
hypothermia if planning recreation in these waterways.

While overall ridging is projected from late week into the weekend,
a few of the guidance scenarios introduce weak disturbances
within the upper level flow, mainly Friday and Saturday. While the
most likely scenario would just be afternoon cumulus buildups, a
few stray showers could pop up either day in some favored
convergence areas such as the eastern Sierra in Mono County, and
far northeast CA-northwest NV. This shower potential remains
below 10% probability.

Next week, ECS/GEFS meteograms continue to show modest precip
signals as a potential trough approaches around mid week. While
this could suggest more activity in the weather pattern, most of
these scenarios keep precip amounts on the lighter side with only
small increases in winds. Temperatures would also come down from
Sunday`s peak, but any cooldown should be less dramatic compared
to previous weather systems earlier this month. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions will prevail for the upcoming week.
Patchy FZFG could return to KTRK early AM Wednesday, but should be
shallower with more limited coverage and shorter duration
compared to this morning, as a weak weather system brushing by to
our north brings increased high cloud cover along with W-NW winds
across ridges (FL100 gusts up to 45 kts). For the main terminals,
surface winds W-NW 10-15 kts this afternoon/evening will shift
N-NE on Wednesday as a cold front drops southward through the
Great Basin. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$