Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 111615 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1015 AM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night
Issued at 1216 AM MST Sun Mar 11 2018

A large ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
through the forecast period. A weak shortwave will slowly make its
way over the western CONUS today, before finally moving over the
state by Monday. Very isolated precipitation could occur over the
western mountains, with minimal accumulation. Otherwise,
temperatures will be near normal today. A warming trend will begin
on Monday, with temperatures becoming slightly above normal into
Tuesday. Lower elevation snow melt will become a concern through
the middle of the week.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday night
Issued at 1216 AM MST Sun Mar 11 2018

A complex weather pattern will evolve over the Western U.S.
Wednesday through Sunday. Models are not in good agreement with
the details once the upper level storm system moves into
California Friday night into Saturday. The models do think that a
strong weather disturbance will rotate through the Western U.S.
Wednesday into Wed night. It appears that western WY would see the
best chance of rain and snow with this disturbance as it moves
through Wed and Wed night. Dry weather elsewhere. Mild high temps
on Wed. The models really diverge Thurs through Sunday. There is
no clear cut solution this far out on just how the upper level
storm system will open up or stay closed as it moves into the
Great Basin and eventually the Rockies. This system has the
potential to swing shortwaves through the area Thurs through
Saturday before the bulk of the trough moves through next Sunday.
The system takes on a springtime scenario with more convective
showers than a stratiform rain or snow event. Thus isolated to
scattered rain and snow showers with snow in the higher mountains
Thursday through Sunday. High temps in the 40s and 50s Thursday
through Saturday and 30s to lower 40s next Sunday. Low temps in
the 20s to lower 30s Thurs and Fri, then mainly 20s Sat and Sun.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday
Issued at 1216 AM MST Sun Mar 11 2018

VFR conditions with light winds are expected across the entire area.
Late this afternoon into the evening, mid-level cloudiness will
overspread the area from west to east. There could be some
isolated snow showers mainly in the western mountains tonight, but
confidence and extent of the showers preclude any mention of
shower activity in any terminal. VFR conditions are expected
Monday morning.


Issued AT 1216 AM MST Sun Mar 11 2018

Dry conditions are expected through the next several days with
light winds. As a result, smoke dispersion will be poor to fair
with relatively low mixing heights. Wednesday will likely have
well-above normal temperatures with gusty SW winds.




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