000
FXUS65 KRIW 140333
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
933 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue for lower
  elevations of Wyoming today and again on Sunday.

- Gusty winds ramp back up Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to
  40 mph from Rock Springs to Casper.

- Series of weather systems early next week knock temperatures
  back down below normal and bring a mixed bag of precip.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Strong early summer ridging continues to bring very warm
conditions across Wyoming. Record highs have been easily
approached at numerous sites, reaching the mid to upper 70s. One
more day of gusty southwest winds and warm temperatures is
expected again Sunday, as gradient tightens ahead of the next
approaching weather system. The combination of gusty southwest
winds and very low humidity levels will lead to elevated to
critical fire weather concerns. These are discussed below in the
Fire Weather section.

The aforementioned system will be moving across California into
Utah later Sunday, bringing some instability mainly to western
WY. A few showers are possible, mainly for higher elevations
Sunday afternoon, but moisture near the sfc remains very
limited, so any precip that does fall will bring minimal
accumulations. The system then tracks east across Utah into
Colorado, inducing lee cyclogenesis which will move northeast
from Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. This will bring
wraparound northeast flow across the state, mainly east of the
divide, bringing a better chance for lower elevation rain and
higher elevation snow. Moisture is still limited, so snowfall
amounts should stay below 3 inches for the Winds and higher
Absarokas, with up to 0.25 inches for Natrona and Johnson
Counties, depending on the final track of the sfc low in
Nebraska. Right now the forecast notes temperatures on Casper
Mountain stay above freezing Monday night, so precip would be a
rain/snow mix, with snow not accumulating.

Models continue to take the next system dropping out of Canada
and move it across the US/Canada border, with more and more of
only a glancing blow into the northern half of Wyoming east of
the Divide. This has brought temperatures back up for Tuesday
in the 50s and 60s, with a gentler cold push arriving Tuesday
night. This keeps the best chances for precip confined to the
northern half of the state, mainly for the higher elevations of
the Absarokas and Bighorns, areas that have been sorely needing
precip this winter.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 922 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions for the entirety of the period for all TAF
sites. Light winds and mainly clear skies overnight under a weak
inversion through Sunday morning. AFter 16-19Z, winds will
increase once again with daytime heating and mixing to the
surface under continued mainly clear skies. Winds will diminish
towards sunset after 00-01Z following the diurnal trends the
past couple of days. No other weather elements are expected at
this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ280.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Lowe