323
FXUS61 KRNK 010601
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits the region tonight. Dry high pressure
follows for late Wednesday into Thursday with continued above
normal temperatures. Another cold front brings wet weather to
the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Tuesday...

Convective activity has largely waned for the evening with only
some clusters pushing eastward in the Piedmont having a bit
greater intensity and lightning production given a lingering
spine of SBCAPE. Secondary area of showers to the west should
diminish soon if given weight to the consensus of CAM solution.
NBM and GLAMP guidance has seemed fairly consistent with some
fog development in the mountain west later tonight into tomorrow
morning that could get near 1/4 SM. Precip coverage wasn`t that
widespread and confidence is not quite there to put up a Dense
Fog Advisory after neighboring office coordination but will keep
an eye on obs and guidance trends into the night to see if
warrants any products/headlines with future updates. Otherwise
forecast largely on track and previous discussion follows...

As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.

2. Clouds overnight but another warm day tomorrow.

The first line of showers associated with a surface front and
southern stream short wave moving through. We will see a few
more hours of showers and thunderstorms. Instability does not
look impressive, but we could see a few claps of thunder as
additional forcing nears and lapse rates increase, especially
over the southern Piedmont where temperatures are much warmer
than the mountains. After sunset precipitation should wane and
exit to the east.

Expecting plenty of very low stratus/fog overnight, especially
where it rains. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 40s
to mid 50s for the mountains, and the mid 50s to low 60s for the
Piedmont. Clouds dissipate towards morning and expect sunny
skies Wednesday. This will mainly impact the mountains which
will see the biggest increase in temperatures between today and
tomorrow. Expect low to upper 70s for the mountains, with lower
80s for the Piedmont.

Confidence is high in the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Dry and warm weather for the second half of the week.

The Mid-Atlantic will be situated underneath an intensifying
500mb ridge from Wednesday onward, set in between a shortwave
trough to the east just into the Atlantic, and a deepening
trough to the west in the plains. A modest surface high will
remain static over the GA/SC coast. With the suppression from
the ridge keeping skies clear and preventing precipitation,
expect a sunny Thursday. Clouds will form on Friday morning and
spread east over the area throughout the day ahead of an
encroaching front. In the overnight period Friday into Saturday,
there is a slight chance for the earliest showers to impact our
mountain zones near the WV/VA border.

Southerly flow will remain constant due to the aforementioned
coastal high, which will serve to keep our temperatures above
normal. This will be amplified by the almost full insolation on
Thursday, and the increased southerly flow in the warm sector on
Friday as an front reaches our doorstep in the west. Widespread
highs in the 70s and closing in on 90 for Southside/Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Frontal passage over the weekend will bring storms

2: Uncertainty for next week

In contrast to the back half of this week, the weekend will be
unsettled and rainy. A front trailing south from a vertically
stacked low pressure system and cutoff low in Canada north of
the Great Lakes will make its passage through our region
starting Saturday and lingering through Sunday. Showers and
storms will make use of the ample moisture in the environment to
create a rainy, overcast weekend. Temperatures will cool and
return closer to normal. Monday will see showers taper off.

Several deterministic models exhibit a small upper shortwave
moving through the TN Valley or OH River Valley before the
next major frontal system. The location and timing of this
feature is quite varied, so confidence on impacts for us on
Monday and Tuesday from this are low. It will be a feature to
watch in subsequent model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...

Winds have turned to the west to northwest at less than 10 mph.
Isolated showers have moved out of the area. Satellite Fog
product images showed stratus expanding over the mountains and
fog in the rover valleys west of the Appalachians.

IFR stratus will continue to spread toward the Virginia and
North Carolina foothills early this morning. Fog will develop
where there was rain Tuesday afternoon. A majority of the fog
will produce MVFR visibilities, but there will be patches of
LIFR conditions. KLWB, KBCB, and KLYH are expected to have
occasional LIFR ceilings and visibilities before 12Z/8AM. The
stratus and fog will be shallow and quickly dissipate in most
locations by 14Z/10AM.

VFR flight conditions are then expected for the rest of the day
and into the evening with winds remaining less than 10 kts.

Average confidence for ceiling and visibility.
Above average confidence for wind.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday is forecast to be VFR and dry.

The next cold front and probability of precipitation arrive in
the area on Friday. This will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the mountains Friday afternoon and evening.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings
and visibilities increases Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/SH
NEAR TERM...AB/SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/AMS