418
FXUS63 KSGF 020906
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
406 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is expected to begin around 7-10 AM for areas west of Hwy
  65 and spread east through the day. Rain will diminish west
  to east after 7 PM tonight.

- The best chance for strong to marginally severe storms will
  be in the late morning to early afternoon hours.

- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend
  and early next week with highest rain chances on Saturday.

- Temperatures will remain above average through at least the
  next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

There are currently two MCS features happening over the Central
Plains region, and neither of them are currently impacting the
SGF CWA. One MCS is moving through southeastern NE and
northeastern KS. The other is making its way through central OK.
However, both MCS features are expected to impact us within the
next few hours. A shortwave sneaks underneath a weak 500mb
ridge over MO late this morning as well. The MCS`s and the
shortwave will allow instability to develop ahead of an incoming
weak surface cold front. Initial convection will be produced by
the southern MCS that will be moving into our area. Once
convection is initiated, models have a line of thunderstorms
filling in feeding off of the northern MCS moving through
north-central MO. Right now, have POPs starting to trend upward
after 7 AM and trend downward after 7 PM this evening. Though,
rain could end early if the front moves through quicker than
anticipated.

As far as thunderstorm potential, there are still model
discrepancies for today on how widespread the thunderstorms
will be. SPC has our entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe
weather today. Only a couple of the CAMs this morning have a
decent handle on MCS activity. The greatest chance for strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms will occur late this morning
into the early afternoon hours. MUCAPE values are around
700-1500 J/kg for this time period with the highest values
occurring over central MO. As soon as the shortwave moves out of
the area, convection begins to die down. The incoming weak cold
front won`t provide enough forcing to sustain severe-level convection
through the rest of the day. Though, showers still may occur
with a few rumbles of thunder until the cold front completely
passes through our area.

As for QPF, rainfall totals will be around 0.5 to 1 inch with
localized higher amounts up to 2 inches over central MO. With
the over-saturated soils, remember that flash flooding may
still occur in low-lying areas even with this amount of
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are
chances for rain everyday through Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Friday through Wednesday. The entire
area is in a general risk for severe weather both on Friday and
Saturday. So far, no outlook has been posted by SPC for Sunday.

However, by Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough
begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another
round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and
timing, but SPC does have our western counties in KS in a Day 5
outlook for a 15% chance for severe weather. CIPS and CSU
guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another
day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing
signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO. May
has started...severe weather season is here. Make sure to stay
up to date with the forecast especially as the start of the next
work week creeps closer.

As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels
could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to
monitor for additional flooding in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR for the night until the convection to the west in Kansas
pushes east into Missouri by sunrise Thursday morning. Expect
scattered thunderstorms throughout the day with MVFR ceilings.
Heavy rain could reduce visibilities down to 3 to 4 SM at times
as well. Expect rain to taper off around Thursday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria