Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260454
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1154 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent rain and minor low water crossing flooding this
  afternoon and evening over the eastern Ozarks.

- Some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with the
  front this afternoon and evening. Low chance for a stronger
  storm with small hail.

- Turning colder tonight behind the front with a hard freeze
  possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Warming up again late in the week into early next week with
  well above normal temperatures this weekend into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a deep trough centered over the
central plains early this afternoon. Upper ridging east of the
low was keeping low pressure system nearly stationary so far
today and as a result, the rain band that has set up across the
CWA from southwest to northeast has remained in nearly the same
area. The heavier bands of rain over the eastern Ozarks has led
to some minor flooding in some low water crossing areas that
typically flood as well as increased the river levels for some
area rivers. Some gusty winds have occurred today, but never
really reached to advisory criteria and the advisory was allowed
to expire at 18z.

Rest of the afternoon into tonight: The upper low will start to
lift northeast this afternoon and tonight with a cold front at
the surface gradually shifting east out of Kansas and into the
forecast area. A little bit of instability may develop ahead of
the front with some scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing. There is a small chance(30% or less) of a stronger
storm with small hail developing. The rain band currently over
the area will gradually shift eastward but may lead to some
additional minor flooding to occur with storm total amounts of 2
to 3 inches in parts of the eastern Ozarks. Colder air will move
in behind the front with temperatures in the west dropping into
the low 30s. May have a few snowflakes in our far northwest CWA,
but no impacts with any snow that does fall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Tuesday: The upper jet will shift east of the area along with
the surface cold front, while the colder air mass will continue
to push into the region. Temperatures will be unseasonably cold
for the aera with highs from the mid 40s to low 50s.

Hard freeze potential Tuesday night: The surface high will move
over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
temperatures dipping into the mid 20s to around 30 for most
locations. Those with agricultural interests where the growing
season has already begun need to be prepared for a hard freeze.

Warming to well above normal again: The temperature roller
coaster will continue this week with temperatures rising into
the 70s by Friday into the weekend with some low 80s by Monday.
A front will be slow to move over the region over the weekend,
but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with position of
the front and any rainfall chances/amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

MVFR conditions at all 3 TAF sites are expected to persist
through Tuesday morning due to ceiling heights, which are
expected to rise in the afternoon once the clouds associated
with the synoptic system begin to clear out from west to east.
Rain showers will linger across the region as the cold front
continues to march eastward, with no further precipitation
expected at the TAF sites. Confidence is not very high in
drizzle due to lack of impressive lift, but moisture in the
lower atmosphere paired with a reduction in cloud ice overnight
means the potential is non-zero.

As the front continues to move eastward across the Ozarks, winds
will continue to shift into a westerly flow pattern. Winds are
generally a bit gusty in the wake of the air mass moving
through, but should calm later in the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Record Precipitation:

March 25:
KVIH: 1.95/1904
KUNO: 1.40/2010


Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KVIH: 80/1967
KUNO: 82/1963

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden


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