590
FXUS63 KSGF 050847
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
347 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall will occur today with localized flooding
  possible. No severe weather expected.

- Expect strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night into
  Tuesday, especially for areas west of Highway 65. SPC
  highlights a Slight Risk (2/5) for this area. Primary hazard
  is damaging wind gusts.

- Unsettled weather will persist through mid-week. Additional
  chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast rainfall
  during this period between 1 to 3 inches may support a
  localized flooding threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today: Another MCS is pushing through Oklahoma this morning.
Today`s rainfall will be more widespread, though there will be
periodic breaks in the rain. Expect rain to arrive around 8-10
AM over southwest Missouri and continue to push south to north,
as well as west to east throughout the day. Severe threat is low
today, any thunderstorms that do develop should stay sub-
severe. Heavy rainfall is a concern today, and localized
flooding may occur especially in areas that are already
saturated. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly cloudy skies. Some breaks in the clouds could occur as
rain starts to dissipate this evening.

Monday: Monday morning through the afternoon will be mostly dry,
outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm (10-30%). As the
upper level trough digs further south into the region, an
associated cold front will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage from
west to east after 8 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Monday-Wednesday: A strong negatively tilted upper level trough
moves across the Central Plains into early next week. This
feature may be slow to progress, bringing several days of
unsettled weather. This includes the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall. Daily highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Slight risk (2/5)
extends eastward to the Highway 65 corridor in our area. All
severe hazards remain plausible with this setup, though damaging
wind gusts are the primary concern. As activity shifts further
east through Monday night into early Tuesday morning, expect
intensity to decrease as the environment becomes less favorable.

Monday Night: Recent trends continue to highlight the most
favorable environment for severe thunderstorms sets up along and
west of Interstate 49 corridor. Forecast soundings show around
2000-3000 J/kg in the vicinity of deep layer shear around 35 to
40 knots. However, as the night goes on, both the upper level
and the low level jet start ramping up around midnight over
southwestern Missouri. Values for 0-3 km shear start to also
increase into the 40-50 knot range. Therefore, this set up is
leaning towards more of a line segment/QLCS storm mode. This
also matches up with the SPC outlook which has a 15-20% chance
of severe winds over our area.

Tuesday: Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Tuesday. Overnight
activity will be ongoing in the morning hours. A secondary low
pressure system and associated warm front lift north back
through the area on Tuesday. There is remaining uncertainty on
the potential for destabilization into Tuesday afternoon/evening
across the eastern portions of the area, though the environment
would support the threat for additional strong to severe
thunderstorms. Tuesday`s risk remains conditional at this time.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorm chances persist into
Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday: By Thursday, ensemble guidance begins to
diverge a bit. A cold front slides through the area Thursday
into Friday with additional low shower and thunderstorm chances
(10-20%) along the passage. Then, we finally get a break from
the rain! Friday and Saturday look mostly dry at this time with
highs cooling off into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR ceilings overnight before rain starts to filter in early
Sunday morning. Winds will remain around 10 knots or less out of
the northeast. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings for most of the day
with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall could be
heavy at times and may reduce visibilities. Rain continues into
Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant
rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of
rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of
showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized
flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will
be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with
local higher amounts of rainfall through the period.

Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and
these will be monitored through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria
HYDROLOGY...Hatch