827
FXUS64 KSHV 020531
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Most of the current forecast remains on track. However, decided to
make adjustments to POPs based on current and forecasted trends.
Our attention overnight will remain on a possible excessive
rainfall event, generally along and south of the Interstate 20
corridor of East Texas. Current radar has a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms moving into portions of Deep East Texas at this
time. This cluster of storms have been slow moving and has a
history of producing very heavy rainfall and likely large hail.
Although I believe the large hail threat has diminish, the heavy
rainfall remains a concern, as short-term progs has moderate to
heavy precip over Deep East Texas overnight. A Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect for areas of East Texas and North Louisiana
along and south of I-20 through 7pm Thursday.

/20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Elevated convection has been ongoing for most of the day north of
Interstate 30, mainly in Southeast Oklahoma. An isolated storm
still persist in Northern McCurtain County. Despite this activity
overperforming for much of today, I expect it to finally weaken
and move northeast of the CWA into Arkansas late this afternoon.

Our attention turns next to the upcoming heavy rain event. A
shortwave trough currently in Southwest Texas is expected to help
initiate a complex of strong to severe convection along a dryline
in Oklahoma and Texas. This line of storms should move into
Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas after midnight tonight/Thursday
morning. Latest high-resolution CAMs focus the stronger storms
from Deep East Texas southward to Interstate 10. A severe weather
threat cannot be ruled out with this complex overnight, especially
if any bowing segments develop. Damaging winds should be the
primary threat.

The biggest concern is the potential for heavy rain and flash
flooding. As the complex arrives, the shortwave trough will also
be moving across the forecast area, so large scale forcing will be
maximized. PWAT values are expected to be near 2 inches, which is
very near climatological maxes for the date. This increases the
confidence in the heavy rain potential. The most likely location
for the heaviest rainfall amounts should be in a corridor from
Angelina County eastward into Western and North Central
Louisiana. Redevelopment of strong convection will be possible
during the afternoon within peak diurnal instability, which may
lead to some enhanced rainfall rates across South Central Arkansas
and Northeast Louisiana.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Thursday
night but coverage and intensity should as the shortwave departs
ending the first round of locally heavy rainfall. However, another
convective complex should approach from the northwest early Friday
morning as a cold front moves towards the area. This will begin
the next round of intense rainfall, which will persist into the
day Friday.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Another complex of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Friday morning but should be south of the I-30 corridor. The cold
front is expected to stall north of I-20 by midday before moving
back northward. Convection should become much more scattered and
spotty in coverage, finally bringing the heavy rain threat to an
end. Storm total rainfall amounts through Friday evening should be
over an inch areawide and likely over 2 inches east of a line from
Lufkin TX, to Shreveport, to Prescott AR.

With a frontal boundary remaining northwest of the area across the
Plains and a persistent west-southwest flow aloft, scattered
convection will remain in the forecast through much of the
weekend, especially across the northwest half of the area. Much of
this will depend on how far south the front moves or if a
convective complex produces a cold pool/outflow boundary that
propagates into the area, which can serve as a focus convection
redevelopment. The best rain chances this weekend appear to be
Saturday afternoon through much of Sunday.

Another shortwave trough should finally lift northeast of the area
late Sunday while the surface front lifts well north of the area.
A few isolated to widely scattered showers or thunderstorms will
still be possible into next Monday and Tuesday. However, the big
story will be the building heat as deep southerly flow and strong
warm air advection commences. Daytime high temperatures are
expected to climb into the into the lower to mid 90s across much
of the area south of I-30 by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the 02/06Z TAFs, conditions continue to deteriorate, with area
METARs indicating descending CIGs ahead of showers and storms
entering east Texas airspace from the south and west. This area of
rainfall has shown a history of being very electrified, thus
carrying more TSRA than SHRA as it treks into the ArkLaTex
through this forecast period. With the heaviest convection,
deterioration to LIFR conditions will be possible. Southeasterly
winds will continue throughout at speeds of 5 to 15 kts with
higher gusts possible in the vicinity of stronger convection.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  70  82  69 /  90  60  70  20
MLU  79  68  79  65 /  90  60  80  20
DEQ  74  64  81  63 /  90  70  50  20
TXK  76  68  82  66 /  90  70  70  20
ELD  76  65  80  63 /  90  70  80  20
TYR  78  69  82  67 /  90  50  50  20
GGG  78  69  82  67 /  90  50  70  10
LFK  79  69  82  68 /  90  40  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26