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000
FXUS64 KSJT 141910
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
210 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...Severe storms possible Monday afternoon and Monday night...

Upper low will be moving into Colorado Sunday afternoon, with
strong southwest flow across West Central Texas. A dryline will be
situated Monday afternoon across the Eastern Permian Basin, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off it in the
afternoon, moving east into West Central Texas (mainly 4 PM and
later) and continuing into the evening hours in West Central
Texas. There may be second batch of storms develop towards
midnight, as the surface trough moves through, bringing southwest
to west winds. With GFS MUCAPES up to 2000 J/KG and 0-6 bulk
shears of 50-60 KTS severe storms possible, with large hail and
damaging winds possible late afternoon and evening. An isolated
tornado possible, mainly in the Big Country. SPC has slight risk
of severe storms from the Concho Valley into the Big Country,
with an enhanced risk in Haskell and Throckmorton counties.

Warm conditions otherwise continue Monday with south winds
bringing highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Mild tonight
with lows in the mid 60s, and slightly cooler Monday night with
lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s (cooler in western
zones).


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday
Night...

The weather gets more active early next week with severe weather
possible late Monday afternoon and night. A strong upper level
disturbance, with a negative tilt/strong mid level jet streak, will
rotate out to the northeast across the Southern and Central Plains
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. At the surface, will see a spring
like pattern across the Southern Plains 12Z Monday with southerly
flow(wind gusts 35 to 40 mph Monday evening) across our area to the
east of a dryline over west Texas. The combination of moderate
instability, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and dryline
moving east will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing during the late afternoon and evening, as a Pacific
cold front overtakes dryline and upper level dynamics increase. A
few storms may be severe with strong vertical wind shear in the
area. A few supercells possible during initial development and
convection developing into a line of storms during Monday evening
and overnight across much of the area. The main hazards will be
very large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Going
with a low to medium chance of rain, with rainfall amounts
remaining below 1 inch.

For Tuesday, the storm system exits the area with breezy conditions
and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Looks like very warm days
Wednesday and Thursday as 850 MB thermal ridge will be over our
area. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The weather get
more unsettled by Thursday through Saturday as cold front moves
south Thursday night and overrunning develops across the area next
weekend. Going with low to medium chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Also, cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday with
highs in the 60s and 70s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

MVFR stratus returns late tonight and early Monday morning across
all the terminals except KABI. South wind gusts up to 21 KTS
develop mid morning across most of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  89  59  87 /   0  30  50   0
San Angelo  66  93  60  88 /   0  20  40   0
Junction    66  91  66  93 /   0   0  20   0
Brownwood   65  85  64  87 /   0  10  50   0
Sweetwater  67  90  58  86 /   0  30  40   0
Ozona       65  89  59  87 /   0  10  30   0
Brady       66  87  67  88 /   0  10  40   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...04